Dynamo Kyiv 2–2 FC Astana: Result & Stats

Dynamo Kyiv

FT

2 – 2

HT: 2 – 1

FC Astana

D. Harmash 45+2'

V. Tsygankov 11'

R. Murtazayev 90+5'

M. Aničić 21'

9/20/2018

UEFA Europa League · Group Stage - 1NSC Olimpiyskiy Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Dynamo Kyiv41%

×Draw27%

FC Astana32%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dynamo KyivExpected goals in this matchFC Astana

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.34

1.14

Dynamo Kyiv

1.34

FC Astana

1.14

Dynamo Kyiv creates 18% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 9 away

0.69

creates per match

0.89

1.38

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Dynamo Kyiv

0.69

FC Astana

0.89

allows per match

Dynamo Kyiv

1.38

FC Astana

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dynamo Kyiv+0.00on par

FC Astana+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dynamo Kyiv ↓

FC Astana →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Dynamo Kyiv or draw

68%

Dynamo Kyiv or FC Astana

73%

Draw or FC Astana

59%

Winning margin

Dynamo Kyiv wins by 2+

19%

FC Astana wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Dynamo Kyiv 1+ goals

74%

Dynamo Kyiv 2+ goals

39%

Dynamo Kyiv 3+ goals

15%

FC Astana 1+ goals

68%

FC Astana 2+ goals

32%

FC Astana 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Dynamo Kyiv (draw refunded)

57%

FC Astana (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dynamo Kyiv at home — creates 0.69, concedes 1.38 · 16 matches

FC Astana away — creates 0.89, concedes 2.00 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dynamo Kyiv attack 0.69 + FC Astana defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.34

FC Astana attack 0.89 + Dynamo Kyiv defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Dynamo Kyiv scores more

41%

level

27%

FC Astana scores more

32%

Dynamo Kyiv at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Dynamo Kyiv will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

15

V. Tsygankov

Dynamo Kyiv · M

8.0

Match Events

11'

V. Tsygankov↳ V. Buyalskyy

21'

M. Aničić↳ J. Kabananga

42'

Mykyta Burda

45+2'

D. Harmash

79'

M. Duelund← D. Harmash

80'

S. Muzhikov← R. Almeyda

81'

Nazariy Rusyn

82'

R. Janga← J. Kabananga

88'

R. Murtazayev← M. Tomasov

90+3'

V. Shepelev← V. Buyalskyy

90+1'

M. Moroziuk← V. Tsygankov

90+5'

R. Murtazayev↳ Pedro Henrique

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

DynamoFC

Overview

51%Possession49%

11Total Shots12

3Corners6

10Fouls14

Shots

11Total Shots12

7On Target4

3Off Target4

1Blocked4

6Inside Box7

5Outside Box5

Passing

51%Possession49%

457Total Passes430

361Accurate Passes344

79%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

2Saves5

Discipline

10Fouls14

2Yellow Cards0

0Red Cards0

0Offsides8