FC Andorra 3–3 Malaga: Result & Stats

FC Andorra

FT

3 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Malaga

Lauti 80'

J. Cerda 57', 51'

J. Montero 82'

E. Jauregi 45' (pen)

D. Murillo 22'

4/1/2026

Segunda División · Round 33Estadi de la FAF

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

FC Andorra33%

×Draw24%

Malaga42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC AndorraExpected goals in this matchMalaga

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

1.58

FC Andorra

1.38

Malaga

1.58

Malaga creates 14% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 5 away

1.50

creates per match

2.14

1.03

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

FC Andorra

1.50

Malaga

2.14

allows per match

FC Andorra

1.03

Malaga

1.25

-0.39scores less than expected

finishing

-0.14scores less than expected

finishing

FC Andorra-0.39scores less

Malaga-0.14scores less

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Andorra ↓

Malaga →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

FC Andorra or draw

58%

FC Andorra or Malaga

76%

Draw or Malaga

67%

Winning margin

FC Andorra wins by 2+

15%

Malaga wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

FC Andorra 1+ goals

75%

FC Andorra 2+ goals

40%

FC Andorra 3+ goals

16%

Malaga 1+ goals

79%

Malaga 2+ goals

47%

Malaga 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

FC Andorra (draw refunded)

44%

Malaga (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Andorra at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.03 · 9 matches

Malaga away — creates 2.14, concedes 1.25 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Andorra attack 1.50 + Malaga defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.38

Malaga attack 2.14 + FC Andorra defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

FC Andorra scores more

33%

level

24%

Malaga scores more

42%

Malaga at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Malaga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

21

J. Cerda

FC Andorra · F

8.2

Match Events

22'

D. Murillo↳ J. Munoz

45+3'

Gael Alonso

45'

E. JauregiPenalty

46'

M. Vila← I. Garcia

46'

D. Sanchez← Rafita

49'

Lautaro De LeónGoal cancelled

51'

J. Cerda↳ T. Carrique

57'

J. Cerda

63'

Marti Vila Garcia

64'

J. Dorrio← J. Munoz

64'

Chupe← E. Jauregi

68'

D. Larrubia← J. Lobete

69'

M. Nieto← J. Cerda

69'

G. Jastin← Y. Cabanzon

71'

Josué Dorrio

73'

A. Nino← R. Rodriguez

77'

Diego Alende

77'

Jokin Gabilondo

80'

Lauti

81'

T. Le Normand← E. Akman

82'

J. Montero↳ J. Dorrio

90+1'

Théo Le Normand

90+6'

Diego Murillo

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FCMalaga

Overview

67%Possession33%

19Total Shots12

8Corners5

17Fouls16

Shots

19Total Shots12

8On Target6

5Off Target4

6Blocked2

7Inside Box10

12Outside Box2

Passing

67%Possession33%

591Total Passes292

511Accurate Passes223

86%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

3Saves5

Discipline

17Fouls16

4Yellow Cards3

4Offsides0

Match Recap: FC Andorra vs Malaga

FC Andorra and Malaga drew 3-3 in Segunda División on April 1, 2026.

Goals: D. Murillo (22'), E. Jauregi (45' pen), J. Cerda (51', 57'), Lauti (80'), J. Montero (82').

FC Andorra controlled possession (67%) and registered 19 shots to 12.

The match was played at Estadi de la FAF in Encamp.

FC Andorra vs Malaga — Segunda División 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: FC Andorra vs Malaga