FC Andorra 1–0 Malaga: Result & Stats

FC Andorra

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Malaga

M. Bundu 71'

4/2/2023

Segunda División · Round 34Estadi Nacional

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

FC Andorra33%

×Draw24%

Malaga42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC AndorraExpected goals in this matchMalaga

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

1.58

FC Andorra

1.38

Malaga

1.58

Malaga creates 14% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 5 away

1.50

creates per match

2.14

1.03

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

FC Andorra

1.50

Malaga

2.14

allows per match

FC Andorra

1.03

Malaga

1.25

-0.39scores less than expected

finishing

-0.14scores less than expected

finishing

FC Andorra-0.39scores less

Malaga-0.14scores less

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Andorra ↓

Malaga →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

FC Andorra or draw

58%

FC Andorra or Malaga

76%

Draw or Malaga

67%

Winning margin

FC Andorra wins by 2+

15%

Malaga wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

FC Andorra 1+ goals

75%

FC Andorra 2+ goals

40%

FC Andorra 3+ goals

16%

Malaga 1+ goals

79%

Malaga 2+ goals

47%

Malaga 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

FC Andorra (draw refunded)

44%

Malaga (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Andorra at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.03 · 9 matches

Malaga away — creates 2.14, concedes 1.25 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Andorra attack 1.50 + Malaga defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.38

Malaga attack 2.14 + FC Andorra defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

FC Andorra scores more

33%

level

24%

Malaga scores more

42%

Malaga at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Malaga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

6

Marc Aguado

FC Andorra · M

7.6

Match Events

38'

Germán Valera

46'

Rubén Castro← Luis Muñoz

46'

Alberto Escassi← Juande Rivas

61'

M. Bundu← C. Albanis

63'

Lago Júnior

68'

Carlos Martínez← S. Bakış

68'

Rubén Bover← H. Hevel

68'

Fran Sol← P. Chavarría

71'

M. Bundu↳ Rubén Bover

75'

Jonas Ramalho

76'

Álex Gallar← Jonás Ramalho

76'

Alejandro Calvo← L. Junior

83'

Jandro Orellana← Iván Gil

83'

Jacobo González← Germán Valera

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FCMalaga

Overview

72%Possession28%

14Total Shots5

6Corners3

9Fouls20

Shots

14Total Shots5

3On Target0

4Off Target5

7Blocked0

5Inside Box3

9Outside Box2

Passing

72%Possession28%

664Total Passes249

589Accurate Passes163

89%Pass Accuracy65%

Goalkeeping

0Saves2

Discipline

9Fouls20

1Yellow Cards2

4Offsides4