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FC Andorra vs Granada CF — Segunda División 2018

FC Andorra
FC Andorra
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Granada CF
Granada CF
Iván Gil 6'
9/4/2022Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 4Estadi Nacional

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

FC Andorra51%
×Draw25%
Granada CF23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Andorra
1.56
Granada CF
0.96

FC Andorra creates 63% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 6 away

creates per match

FC Andorra
1.50
Granada CF
0.83

allows per match

FC Andorra
1.09
Granada CF
1.62

finishing

FC Andorra-0.37scores less
Granada CF+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Andorra ↓

Granada CF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

FC Andorra or draw
77%
FC Andorra or Granada CF
75%
Draw or Granada CF
49%

Winning margin

FC Andorra wins by 2+
27%
Granada CF wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

FC Andorra 1+ goals
79%
FC Andorra 2+ goals
46%
FC Andorra 3+ goals
21%
Granada CF 1+ goals
62%
Granada CF 2+ goals
25%
Granada CF 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

FC Andorra (draw refunded)
69%
Granada CF (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Andorra at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.09 · 8 matches

Granada CF away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.62 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Andorra attack 1.50 + Granada CF defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.56

Granada CF attack 0.83 + FC Andorra defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

FC Andorra scores more
51%
level
25%
Granada CF scores more
23%

FC Andorra at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "FC Andorra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

22
Iván GilFC AndorraFC Andorra · F
7.7

Match Events

6'
Iván Gil↳ Adrià Vilanova
28'
José Callejón
46'
Jandro Orellana← Sergio Molina
58'
J. Silva← Quini
58'
Alberto Perea← M. Arezo
59'
Martí Vilà← Diego Pampín
59'
H. Hevel← Germán Valera
69'
Myrto Uzuni
69'
Antonio PuertasGoal cancelled
70'
Jorge Molina← M. Uzuni
75'
Álex Pastor← Mika Màrmol
76'
E. Cabaco← Ignasi Miquel
77'
Rochina← José Callejón
84'
Rubén Bover← Marc Aguado
90+2'
Hector Hevel

Possession

59%FC

Shots

6FC

Pass accuracy

53%FC

Statistics

FCGranada
Overview
59%Possession41%
6Total Shots17
2Corners4
13Fouls13
Shots
6Total Shots17
2On Target3
2Off Target8
2Blocked6
2Inside Box10
4Outside Box7
Passing
59%Possession41%
522Total Passes345
420Accurate Passes248
80%Pass Accuracy72%
Goalkeeping
3Saves1
Discipline
13Fouls13
1Yellow Cards2
3Offsides3

Match Recap: FC Andorra vs Granada CF

FC Andorra beat Granada CF 1-0 in Segunda División on September 4, 2022.

Goals: Iván Gil (6').

FC Andorra controlled possession (59%) and registered 6 shots to 17.

The match was played at Estadi Nacional in Andorra la Vella.