FC Andorra 1–3 Eldense: Result & Stats

FC Andorra

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

Eldense

11/12/2023

Segunda División · Round 15Estadi Nacional

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

FC Andorra47%

×Draw27%

Eldense26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC AndorraExpected goals in this matchEldense

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.37

0.94

FC Andorra

1.37

Eldense

0.94

FC Andorra creates 46% more chances

Season form · 63 home / 42 away

1.24

creates per match

0.95

0.94

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

FC Andorra

1.24

Eldense

0.95

allows per match

FC Andorra

0.94

Eldense

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FC Andorra+0.00on par

Eldense+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Andorra ↓

Eldense →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

FC Andorra or draw

74%

FC Andorra or Eldense

73%

Draw or Eldense

53%

Winning margin

FC Andorra wins by 2+

22%

Eldense wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

FC Andorra 1+ goals

75%

FC Andorra 2+ goals

40%

FC Andorra 3+ goals

16%

Eldense 1+ goals

61%

Eldense 2+ goals

24%

Eldense 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

FC Andorra (draw refunded)

64%

Eldense (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Andorra at home — creates 1.24, concedes 0.94 · 63 matches

Eldense away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.50 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Andorra attack 1.24 + Eldense defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.37

Eldense attack 0.95 + FC Andorra defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

FC Andorra scores more

47%

level

27%

Eldense scores more

26%

FC Andorra at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "FC Andorra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff