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Eldense vs FC Andorra — Segunda División 2018

Eldense
Eldense
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
FC Andorra
FC Andorra
4/6/2024Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 34Estadio Municipal Nuevo Pepico Amat

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Eldense39%
×Draw27%
FC Andorra34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Eldense
1.27
FC Andorra
1.18

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 42 home / 63 away

creates per match

Eldense
1.19
FC Andorra
1.02

allows per match

Eldense
1.33
FC Andorra
1.35

finishing

Eldense+0.00on par
FC Andorra+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eldense ↓

FC Andorra →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Eldense or draw
66%
Eldense or FC Andorra
73%
Draw or FC Andorra
61%

Winning margin

Eldense wins by 2+
17%
FC Andorra wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Eldense 1+ goals
72%
Eldense 2+ goals
36%
Eldense 3+ goals
14%
FC Andorra 1+ goals
69%
FC Andorra 2+ goals
33%
FC Andorra 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Eldense (draw refunded)
53%
FC Andorra (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eldense at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.33 · 42 matches

FC Andorra away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.35 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eldense attack 1.19 + FC Andorra defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.27

FC Andorra attack 1.02 + Eldense defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Eldense scores more
39%
level
27%
FC Andorra scores more
34%

Eldense at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Eldense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Eldense vs FC Andorra

FC Andorra beat Eldense 2-0 in Segunda División on April 6, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Nuevo Pepico Amat in Elda.