FC Andorra 1–3 Castellón: Result & Stats

FC Andorra

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Castellón

M. Kim 89'

A. Jakobsen 56'

A. Jimenez 54'

P. Santiago 13'

11/22/2025

Segunda División · Round 15Estadi de la FAF

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

FC Andorra34%

×Draw24%

Castellón42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC AndorraExpected goals in this matchCastellón

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.47

1.64

FC Andorra

1.47

Castellón

1.64

Castellón creates 12% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 7 away

1.50

creates per match

2.18

1.09

allows per match

1.44

creates per match

FC Andorra

1.50

Castellón

2.18

allows per match

FC Andorra

1.09

Castellón

1.44

-0.37scores less than expected

finishing

-0.61scores less than expected

finishing

FC Andorra-0.37scores less

Castellón-0.61scores less

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Andorra ↓

Castellón →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

FC Andorra or draw

58%

FC Andorra or Castellón

76%

Draw or Castellón

66%

Winning margin

FC Andorra wins by 2+

16%

Castellón wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

FC Andorra 1+ goals

77%

FC Andorra 2+ goals

43%

FC Andorra 3+ goals

18%

Castellón 1+ goals

81%

Castellón 2+ goals

49%

Castellón 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

FC Andorra (draw refunded)

45%

Castellón (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Andorra at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.09 · 8 matches

Castellón away — creates 2.18, concedes 1.44 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Andorra attack 1.50 + Castellón defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.47

Castellón attack 2.18 + FC Andorra defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

FC Andorra scores more

34%

level

24%

Castellón scores more

42%

Castellón at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Castellón will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

18

P. Santiago

Castellón · M

8.5

Match Events

4'

Pablo Santiago

13'

P. Santiago↳ A. Jakobsen

37'

Thomas Carrique

46'

A. Olabarrieta← T. Le Normand

54'

A. Jimenez↳ P. Santiago

56'

A. Jakobsen↳ P. Santiago

59'

M. Nieto← T. Carrique

59'

G. Jastin← M. Domenech

61'

K. Mamah← P. Santiago

65'

Beñat Gerenabarrena

66'

Manuel Nieto

70'

I. Suero← A. Calatrava

70'

O. Gil← B. Gerenabarrena

75'

Alvaro← S. Molina

75'

A. Uzkudun← Lauti

82'

D. Aurelio← A. Jakobsen

83'

Ronaldo← A. Sienra

89'

M. Kim↳ G. Jastin

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FCCastellón

Overview

57%Possession43%

10Total Shots16

1.08Expected Goals (xG)2.75

2Corners4

14Fouls13

Shots

10Total Shots16

4On Target6

4Off Target7

2Blocked3

8Inside Box12

2Outside Box4

Passing

57%Possession43%

534Total Passes392

427Accurate Passes283

80%Pass Accuracy72%

Goalkeeping

3Saves3

Discipline

14Fouls13

2Yellow Cards2

2Offsides0

Match Recap: FC Andorra vs Castellón

Castellón beat FC Andorra 3-1 in Segunda División on November 22, 2025.

Goals: P. Santiago (13'), A. Jimenez (54'), A. Jakobsen (56'), M. Kim (89').

FC Andorra controlled possession (57%) and registered 10 shots to 16.

The match was played at Estadi de la FAF in Encamp.

FC Andorra vs Castellón — Segunda División 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: FC Andorra vs Castellón