Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

FC Andorra vs Castellón — League #437 2026

FC Andorra
FC Andorra
CANC
00:00
Castellón
Castellón
4/26/2020League #437League #437 · Group 3 - 35Estadio Camp Nou Municipal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

FC Andorra46%
×Draw29%
Castellón25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Andorra
1.29
Castellón
0.88

FC Andorra creates 47% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 3 away

creates per match

FC Andorra
1.25
Castellón
1.00

allows per match

FC Andorra
0.75
Castellón
1.33

finishing

FC Andorra+0.00on par
Castellón+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Andorra ↓

Castellón →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

FC Andorra or draw
75%
FC Andorra or Castellón
71%
Draw or Castellón
54%

Winning margin

FC Andorra wins by 2+
21%
Castellón wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

FC Andorra 1+ goals
72%
FC Andorra 2+ goals
37%
FC Andorra 3+ goals
14%
Castellón 1+ goals
59%
Castellón 2+ goals
22%
Castellón 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

FC Andorra (draw refunded)
64%
Castellón (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Andorra at home — creates 1.25, concedes 0.75 · 4 matches

Castellón away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Andorra attack 1.25 + Castellón defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.29

Castellón attack 1.00 + FC Andorra defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

FC Andorra scores more
46%
level
29%
Castellón scores more
25%

FC Andorra at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "FC Andorra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: FC Andorra host Castellón

April 26, 2020: FC Andorra take on Castellón in League #437. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

FC Andorra host Castellón at Estadio Camp Nou Municipal.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.