FC Andorra 0–1 Amorebieta: Result & Stats

FC Andorra

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Amorebieta

Unai Bustinza 88'

3/18/2024

Segunda División · Round 31Estadi Nacional

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

FC Andorra52%

×Draw26%

Amorebieta21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC AndorraExpected goals in this matchAmorebieta

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.49

0.84

FC Andorra

1.49

Amorebieta

0.84

FC Andorra creates 77% more chances

Season form · 63 home / 42 away

1.24

creates per match

0.74

0.94

allows per match

1.74

creates per match

FC Andorra

1.24

Amorebieta

0.74

allows per match

FC Andorra

0.94

Amorebieta

1.74

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FC Andorra+0.00on par

Amorebieta+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Andorra ↓

Amorebieta →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

FC Andorra or draw

79%

FC Andorra or Amorebieta

74%

Draw or Amorebieta

48%

Winning margin

FC Andorra wins by 2+

27%

Amorebieta wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

FC Andorra 1+ goals

77%

FC Andorra 2+ goals

44%

FC Andorra 3+ goals

19%

Amorebieta 1+ goals

57%

Amorebieta 2+ goals

21%

Amorebieta 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

FC Andorra (draw refunded)

71%

Amorebieta (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Andorra at home — creates 1.24, concedes 0.94 · 63 matches

Amorebieta away — creates 0.74, concedes 1.74 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Andorra attack 1.24 + Amorebieta defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.49

Amorebieta attack 0.74 + FC Andorra defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

FC Andorra scores more

52%

level

26%

Amorebieta scores more

21%

FC Andorra at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "FC Andorra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

13

Jon Mikel

Amorebieta · G

8.3

Match Events

34'

Unai Bustinza

61'

Daniel Lasure

69'

Eneko Jauregi← Iker Unzueta

71'

Jon Karrikaburu← Jorge Pombo

74'

Jandro Orellana

76'

Jorge Mier← Xabier Etxeita

76'

J. Yriarte← Àlex Carbonell

80'

Álvaro Martín← Rubén Bover

82'

José Marsà

86'

Adrià Vilanova

86'

Álex Calvo← José Marsà

86'

Julen Lobete← Iván Gil

88'

Unai Bustinza↳ Félix Garreta

90+2'

R. Edwards← Jon Morcillo

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FCAmorebieta

Overview

68%Possession32%

21Total Shots6

4Corners4

12Fouls7

Shots

21Total Shots6

5On Target3

9Off Target2

7Blocked1

12Inside Box3

9Outside Box3

Passing

68%Possession32%

691Total Passes319

634Accurate Passes251

92%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

2Saves5

Discipline

12Fouls7

3Yellow Cards2

1Offsides0