Amorebieta 3–0 FC Andorra: Result & Stats

Amorebieta

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

FC Andorra

K. Sibo 90+1'

Eraso 53'

Eneko Jauregi 39'

8/27/2023

Segunda División · Round 3Instalaciones de Lezama Campo 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Amorebieta42%

×Draw28%

FC Andorra30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AmorebietaExpected goals in this matchFC Andorra

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.02

Amorebieta

1.27

FC Andorra

1.02

Amorebieta creates 25% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 63 away

1.19

creates per match

1.02

allows per match

1.35

creates per match

Amorebieta

1.19

FC Andorra

1.02

allows per match

Amorebieta

1.02

FC Andorra

1.35

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Amorebieta+0.00on par

FC Andorra+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Amorebieta ↓

FC Andorra →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Amorebieta or draw

70%

Amorebieta or FC Andorra

72%

Draw or FC Andorra

58%

Winning margin

Amorebieta wins by 2+

19%

FC Andorra wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Amorebieta 1+ goals

72%

Amorebieta 2+ goals

36%

Amorebieta 3+ goals

14%

FC Andorra 1+ goals

64%

FC Andorra 2+ goals

27%

FC Andorra 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Amorebieta (draw refunded)

59%

FC Andorra (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Amorebieta at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.02 · 42 matches

FC Andorra away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.35 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Amorebieta attack 1.19 + FC Andorra defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.27

FC Andorra attack 1.02 + Amorebieta defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Amorebieta scores more

42%

level

28%

FC Andorra scores more

30%

Amorebieta at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Amorebieta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

30

Pablo Cuñat

Amorebieta · G

8.5

Match Events

39'

Eneko Jauregi

42'

Álex Petxa

53'

Eraso↳ Josué Dorrio

63'

Álvaro Martín← Rubén Bover

63'

Adrià Vilanova← A. Arroyo

68'

R. Edwards← Eneko Jauregi

74'

Iker Benito← Álex Petxa

74'

Sergio Molina← José Marsà

76'

Erik Morán← Eraso

77'

Jon Morcillo← Josué Dorrio

81'

Xabier Etxeita

84'

Sergi Samper← Jandro Orellana

86'

L. Quintero← Rayco Rodríguez

87'

Álvaro Núñez← Jorge Mier

90'

Luis Quintero

90+1'

K. Sibo↳ L. Quintero

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AmorebietaFC

Overview

24%Possession76%

9Total Shots15

3Corners7

14Fouls8

Shots

9Total Shots15

4On Target5

3Off Target8

2Blocked2

4Inside Box7

5Outside Box8

Passing

24%Possession76%

219Total Passes694

147Accurate Passes617

67%Pass Accuracy89%

Goalkeeping

5Saves1

Discipline

14Fouls8

2Yellow Cards1

1Offsides2