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FC Aarau vs FC Winterthur — Challenge League 2026

FC Aarau
FC Aarau
Preview
16:00
FC Winterthur
FC Winterthur
12/19/2026Challenge LeagueChallenge League · Round 18
Big match
47%
FC Aarau
model favours
47%23%30%

FC Winterthur score first in only 20% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
61%
over 2.5 goals
62%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

FC Aarau47%
×Draw23%
FC Winterthur30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Aarau
1.80
FC Winterthur
1.38

FC Aarau creates 30% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 35 away

creates per match

FC Aarau
1.92
FC Winterthur
1.40

allows per match

FC Aarau
1.35
FC Winterthur
1.69

finishing

FC Aarau+0.00on par
FC Winterthur+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Aarau ↓

FC Winterthur →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

FC Aarau or draw
70%
FC Aarau or FC Winterthur
77%
Draw or FC Winterthur
53%

Winning margin

FC Aarau wins by 2+
26%
FC Winterthur wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

FC Aarau 1+ goals
83%
FC Aarau 2+ goals
54%
FC Aarau 3+ goals
27%
FC Winterthur 1+ goals
75%
FC Winterthur 2+ goals
40%
FC Winterthur 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

FC Aarau (draw refunded)
62%
FC Winterthur (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Aarau at home — creates 1.92, concedes 1.35 · 62 matches

FC Winterthur away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.69 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Aarau attack 1.92 + FC Winterthur defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.80

FC Winterthur attack 1.40 + FC Aarau defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

FC Aarau scores more
47%
level
23%
FC Winterthur scores more
30%

FC Aarau at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "FC Aarau will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Both teams score in 80% of FC Winterthur’s matches
  • 70% of FC Winterthur’s matches go over 2.5 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Aarau
LWLL
Winterthur
DDDDL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: FC Aarau host FC Winterthur

December 19, 2026: FC Aarau take on FC Winterthur in Challenge League. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.