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FC Aarau vs Étoile Carouge — Challenge League 2026

FC Aarau
FC Aarau
Preview
15:00
Étoile Carouge
Étoile Carouge
10/24/2026Challenge LeagueChallenge League · Round 11
Big match
49%
FC Aarau
model favours
49%23%29%
1–1
likely score
63%
over 2.5 goals
63%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

FC Aarau49%
×Draw23%
Étoile Carouge29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Aarau
1.86
Étoile Carouge
1.38

FC Aarau creates 35% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 10 away

creates per match

FC Aarau
1.92
Étoile Carouge
1.40

allows per match

FC Aarau
1.35
Étoile Carouge
1.80

finishing

FC Aarau+0.00on par
Étoile Carouge+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Aarau ↓

Étoile Carouge →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

FC Aarau or draw
71%
FC Aarau or Étoile Carouge
77%
Draw or Étoile Carouge
51%

Winning margin

FC Aarau wins by 2+
27%
Étoile Carouge wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

FC Aarau 1+ goals
84%
FC Aarau 2+ goals
55%
FC Aarau 3+ goals
28%
Étoile Carouge 1+ goals
75%
Étoile Carouge 2+ goals
40%
Étoile Carouge 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

FC Aarau (draw refunded)
63%
Étoile Carouge (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Aarau at home — creates 1.92, concedes 1.35 · 62 matches

Étoile Carouge away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.80 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Aarau attack 1.92 + Étoile Carouge defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.86

Étoile Carouge attack 1.40 + FC Aarau defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

FC Aarau scores more
49%
level
23%
Étoile Carouge scores more
29%

FC Aarau at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "FC Aarau will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Aarau
LWLL
Carouge
WLWLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FC Aarau face Étoile Carouge (Challenge League)

Challenge League returns with FC Aarau hosting Étoile Carouge. Match starts October 24, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.