Étoile Carouge 3–0 FC Aarau LIVE: Live Score

Étoile Carouge

79'

3 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

FC Aarau

O. Sene 78'

O. Correia 67'

S. Camara 52'

7/24/2026

Challenge League · Round 1Stade de la Fontenette

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Étoile Carouge41%

×Draw23%

FC Aarau36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Étoile CarougeExpected goals in this matchFC Aarau

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.68

1.56

Étoile Carouge

1.68

FC Aarau

1.56

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 13 home / 61 away

1.31

creates per match

1.59

1.54

allows per match

2.05

creates per match

Étoile Carouge

1.31

FC Aarau

1.59

allows per match

Étoile Carouge

1.54

FC Aarau

2.05

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Étoile Carouge+0.00on par

FC Aarau+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Étoile Carouge ↓

FC Aarau →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

63%37%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Étoile Carouge or draw

64%

Étoile Carouge or FC Aarau

77%

Draw or FC Aarau

59%

Winning margin

Étoile Carouge wins by 2+

21%

FC Aarau wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Étoile Carouge 1+ goals

81%

Étoile Carouge 2+ goals

50%

Étoile Carouge 3+ goals

24%

FC Aarau 1+ goals

79%

FC Aarau 2+ goals

46%

FC Aarau 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Étoile Carouge (draw refunded)

53%

FC Aarau (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Étoile Carouge at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.54 · 13 matches

FC Aarau away — creates 1.59, concedes 2.05 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Étoile Carouge attack 1.31 + FC Aarau defence 2.05 → ÷2 → 1.68

FC Aarau attack 1.59 + Étoile Carouge defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Étoile Carouge scores more

41%

level

23%

FC Aarau scores more

36%

Étoile Carouge at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Étoile Carouge will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

30'

46'

52'

59'

60'

63'

H. Koide← R. Baturina

67'

O. Correia↳ L. Essiena

72'

B. Hasani← B. Senyurt

72'

Z. Tairi← I. Aliu

73'

M. El Jaouhari← S. Camara

73'

Ricardo Alves← T. Escorza

78'

O. Sene

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff