Étoile Carouge vs FC Aarau — Challenge League 2026
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 14+ matches
Étoile Carouge44%
FC Aarau33%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Étoile Carouge creates 17% more chances
Season form · 14 home / 62 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over63
- Under37
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes64
- No36
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Étoile Carouge ↓
Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Étoile Carouge at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.43 · 14 matches
FC Aarau away — creates 1.56, concedes 2.06 · 62 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Étoile Carouge attack 1.43 + FC Aarau defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 1.75
FC Aarau attack 1.56 + Étoile Carouge defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.50
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 44%?"
Étoile Carouge at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 44% does not mean "Étoile Carouge will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
FC Aarau substitutes
Head to Head
5 previous meetings
If points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Étoile Carouge host FC Aarau on Friday, 26 September 2025 at 18:15. The match is part of the Challenge League 2026/2027 season.
Étoile Carouge 1 – 3 FC Aarau
FC Aarau beat Étoile Carouge 3-1 in Challenge League on September 26, 2025.
Goals: L. Frokaj (10'), Ricardo Alves (50'), E. Filet (71'), D. Derbaci (90').
The match was played at Stade de la Fontenette in Carouge.