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FC 1906 Erlensee vs Eintracht Stadtallendorf — Oberliga - Hessen 2020

FC 1906 Erlensee
FC 1906 Erlensee
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Eintracht Stadtallendorf
Eintracht Stadtallendorf
11/26/2022Oberliga - HessenOberliga - Hessen · Hessen - 21Kunstrasenplatz KR1 Erlensee

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

FC 1906 Erlensee40%
×Draw23%
Eintracht Stadtallendorf37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC 1906 Erlensee
1.69
Eintracht Stadtallendorf
1.61

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 56 home / 85 away

creates per match

FC 1906 Erlensee
2.02
Eintracht Stadtallendorf
1.60

allows per match

FC 1906 Erlensee
1.63
Eintracht Stadtallendorf
1.36

finishing

FC 1906 Erlensee+0.00on par
Eintracht Stadtallendorf+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC 1906 Erlensee ↓

Eintracht Stadtallendorf →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

FC 1906 Erlensee or draw
63%
FC 1906 Erlensee or Eintracht Stadtallendorf
77%
Draw or Eintracht Stadtallendorf
60%

Winning margin

FC 1906 Erlensee wins by 2+
21%
Eintracht Stadtallendorf wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

FC 1906 Erlensee 1+ goals
82%
FC 1906 Erlensee 2+ goals
50%
FC 1906 Erlensee 3+ goals
24%
Eintracht Stadtallendorf 1+ goals
80%
Eintracht Stadtallendorf 2+ goals
48%
Eintracht Stadtallendorf 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

FC 1906 Erlensee (draw refunded)
52%
Eintracht Stadtallendorf (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC 1906 Erlensee at home — creates 2.02, concedes 1.63 · 56 matches

Eintracht Stadtallendorf away — creates 1.60, concedes 1.36 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC 1906 Erlensee attack 2.02 + Eintracht Stadtallendorf defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.69

Eintracht Stadtallendorf attack 1.60 + FC 1906 Erlensee defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

FC 1906 Erlensee scores more
40%
level
23%
Eintracht Stadtallendorf scores more
37%

FC 1906 Erlensee at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "FC 1906 Erlensee will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FC 1906 Erlensee vs Eintracht Stadtallendorf

Eintracht Stadtallendorf beat FC 1906 Erlensee 3-0 in Oberliga - Hessen on November 26, 2022.

The match was played at Kunstrasenplatz KR1 Erlensee in Erlensee.