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Eintracht Stadtallendorf vs FC 1906 Erlensee — Oberliga - Hessen 2020

Eintracht Stadtallendorf
Eintracht Stadtallendorf
FT
3 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
FC 1906 Erlensee
FC 1906 Erlensee
8/13/2022Oberliga - HessenOberliga - Hessen · Hessen - 4Kunstrasenplatz 1 Stadtallendorf

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Eintracht Stadtallendorf57%
×Draw21%
FC 1906 Erlensee22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Eintracht Stadtallendorf
2.05
FC 1906 Erlensee
1.20

Eintracht Stadtallendorf creates 71% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 57 away

creates per match

Eintracht Stadtallendorf
2.13
FC 1906 Erlensee
1.16

allows per match

Eintracht Stadtallendorf
1.24
FC 1906 Erlensee
1.98

finishing

Eintracht Stadtallendorf+0.00on par
FC 1906 Erlensee+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eintracht Stadtallendorf ↓

FC 1906 Erlensee →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Eintracht Stadtallendorf or draw
78%
Eintracht Stadtallendorf or FC 1906 Erlensee
79%
Draw or FC 1906 Erlensee
43%

Winning margin

Eintracht Stadtallendorf wins by 2+
34%
FC 1906 Erlensee wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Eintracht Stadtallendorf 1+ goals
87%
Eintracht Stadtallendorf 2+ goals
61%
Eintracht Stadtallendorf 3+ goals
33%
FC 1906 Erlensee 1+ goals
70%
FC 1906 Erlensee 2+ goals
34%
FC 1906 Erlensee 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Eintracht Stadtallendorf (draw refunded)
72%
FC 1906 Erlensee (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eintracht Stadtallendorf at home — creates 2.13, concedes 1.24 · 85 matches

FC 1906 Erlensee away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.98 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eintracht Stadtallendorf attack 2.13 + FC 1906 Erlensee defence 1.98 → ÷2 → 2.05

FC 1906 Erlensee attack 1.16 + Eintracht Stadtallendorf defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Eintracht Stadtallendorf scores more
57%
level
21%
FC 1906 Erlensee scores more
22%

Eintracht Stadtallendorf at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Eintracht Stadtallendorf will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Eintracht Stadtallendorf vs FC 1906 Erlensee

Eintracht Stadtallendorf beat FC 1906 Erlensee 3-1 in Oberliga - Hessen on August 13, 2022.

The match was played at Kunstrasenplatz 1 Stadtallendorf in Stadtallendorf.