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FC 1906 Erlensee vs Bayern Alzenau — Oberliga - Hessen 2020

FC 1906 Erlensee
FC 1906 Erlensee
FT
1 – 0
Bayern Alzenau
Bayern Alzenau
10/27/2021Oberliga - HessenOberliga - Hessen · Hessen - 15Kunstrasenplatz KR1 Erlensee

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

FC 1906 Erlensee40%
×Draw22%
Bayern Alzenau39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC 1906 Erlensee
1.86
Bayern Alzenau
1.83

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 56 home / 70 away

creates per match

FC 1906 Erlensee
2.02
Bayern Alzenau
2.03

allows per match

FC 1906 Erlensee
1.63
Bayern Alzenau
1.71

finishing

FC 1906 Erlensee+0.00on par
Bayern Alzenau+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC 1906 Erlensee ↓

Bayern Alzenau →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

FC 1906 Erlensee or draw
61%
FC 1906 Erlensee or Bayern Alzenau
78%
Draw or Bayern Alzenau
60%

Winning margin

FC 1906 Erlensee wins by 2+
21%
Bayern Alzenau wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

FC 1906 Erlensee 1+ goals
84%
FC 1906 Erlensee 2+ goals
55%
FC 1906 Erlensee 3+ goals
28%
Bayern Alzenau 1+ goals
84%
Bayern Alzenau 2+ goals
54%
Bayern Alzenau 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

FC 1906 Erlensee (draw refunded)
51%
Bayern Alzenau (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC 1906 Erlensee at home — creates 2.02, concedes 1.63 · 56 matches

Bayern Alzenau away — creates 2.03, concedes 1.71 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC 1906 Erlensee attack 2.02 + Bayern Alzenau defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.86

Bayern Alzenau attack 2.03 + FC 1906 Erlensee defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

FC 1906 Erlensee scores more
40%
level
22%
Bayern Alzenau scores more
39%

FC 1906 Erlensee at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "FC 1906 Erlensee will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FC 1906 Erlensee vs Bayern Alzenau

FC 1906 Erlensee beat Bayern Alzenau 1-0 in Oberliga - Hessen on October 27, 2021.

The match was played at Kunstrasenplatz KR1 Erlensee in Erlensee.