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Bayern Alzenau vs FC 1906 Erlensee — Oberliga - Hessen 2020

Bayern Alzenau
Bayern Alzenau
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
FC 1906 Erlensee
FC 1906 Erlensee
10/3/2022Oberliga - HessenOberliga - Hessen · Hessen - 13Städtisches Stadion im Sportzentrum am Prischoß

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Bayern Alzenau56%
×Draw22%
FC 1906 Erlensee22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bayern Alzenau
1.97
FC 1906 Erlensee
1.14

Bayern Alzenau creates 73% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 57 away

creates per match

Bayern Alzenau
1.96
FC 1906 Erlensee
1.16

allows per match

Bayern Alzenau
1.11
FC 1906 Erlensee
1.98

finishing

Bayern Alzenau+0.00on par
FC 1906 Erlensee+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bayern Alzenau ↓

FC 1906 Erlensee →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Bayern Alzenau or draw
78%
Bayern Alzenau or FC 1906 Erlensee
78%
Draw or FC 1906 Erlensee
44%

Winning margin

Bayern Alzenau wins by 2+
33%
FC 1906 Erlensee wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Bayern Alzenau 1+ goals
86%
Bayern Alzenau 2+ goals
58%
Bayern Alzenau 3+ goals
31%
FC 1906 Erlensee 1+ goals
68%
FC 1906 Erlensee 2+ goals
32%
FC 1906 Erlensee 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Bayern Alzenau (draw refunded)
72%
FC 1906 Erlensee (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bayern Alzenau at home — creates 1.96, concedes 1.11 · 70 matches

FC 1906 Erlensee away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.98 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bayern Alzenau attack 1.96 + FC 1906 Erlensee defence 1.98 → ÷2 → 1.97

FC 1906 Erlensee attack 1.16 + Bayern Alzenau defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Bayern Alzenau scores more
56%
level
22%
FC 1906 Erlensee scores more
22%

Bayern Alzenau at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Bayern Alzenau will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Hessen: Bayern Alzenau 0–0 FC 1906 Erlensee

Bayern Alzenau and FC 1906 Erlensee drew 0-0 in Oberliga - Hessen on October 3, 2022.

The match was played at Städtisches Stadion im Sportzentrum am Prischoß in Alzenau.