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FC 105 vs Mangasport — Championnat D1 2022

FC 105
FC 105
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Mangasport
Mangasport
12/7/2024Championnat D1Championnat D1 · Round 3Stade Idriss Ngari

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

FC 10524%
×Draw26%
Mangasport50%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC 105
0.94
Mangasport
1.48

Mangasport creates 57% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 31 away

creates per match

FC 105
1.41
Mangasport
1.52

allows per match

FC 105
1.44
Mangasport
0.48

finishing

FC 105+0.00on par
Mangasport+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC 105 ↓

Mangasport →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–113%
0–210%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

FC 105 or draw
50%
FC 105 or Mangasport
74%
Draw or Mangasport
76%

Winning margin

FC 105 wins by 2+
8%
Mangasport wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

FC 105 1+ goals
61%
FC 105 2+ goals
24%
FC 105 3+ goals
7%
Mangasport 1+ goals
77%
Mangasport 2+ goals
43%
Mangasport 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

FC 105 (draw refunded)
33%
Mangasport (draw refunded)
67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC 105 at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.44 · 32 matches

Mangasport away — creates 1.52, concedes 0.48 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC 105 attack 1.41 + Mangasport defence 0.48 → ÷2 → 0.94

Mangasport attack 1.52 + FC 105 defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

FC 105 scores more
24%
level
26%
Mangasport scores more
50%

Mangasport at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Mangasport will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Championnat D1: FC 105 1–1 Mangasport

FC 105 and Mangasport drew 1-1 in Championnat D1 on December 7, 2024.

The match was played at Stade Idriss Ngari in Owendo.