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FC 08 Villingen vs Denzlingen — Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg 2020

FC 08 Villingen
FC 08 Villingen
FT
5 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Denzlingen
Denzlingen
11/25/2023Oberliga - Baden-WürttembergOberliga - Baden-Württemberg · Baden-Württemberg - 19MS Technologie Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

FC 08 Villingen61%
×Draw19%
Denzlingen20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC 08 Villingen
2.34
Denzlingen
1.26

FC 08 Villingen creates 86% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 34 away

creates per match

FC 08 Villingen
2.25
Denzlingen
1.18

allows per match

FC 08 Villingen
1.34
Denzlingen
2.44

finishing

FC 08 Villingen+0.00on par
Denzlingen+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC 08 Villingen ↓

Denzlingen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

FC 08 Villingen or draw
80%
FC 08 Villingen or Denzlingen
81%
Draw or Denzlingen
39%

Winning margin

FC 08 Villingen wins by 2+
39%
Denzlingen wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

FC 08 Villingen 1+ goals
90%
FC 08 Villingen 2+ goals
67%
FC 08 Villingen 3+ goals
41%
Denzlingen 1+ goals
72%
Denzlingen 2+ goals
36%
Denzlingen 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

FC 08 Villingen (draw refunded)
76%
Denzlingen (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC 08 Villingen at home — creates 2.25, concedes 1.34 · 76 matches

Denzlingen away — creates 1.18, concedes 2.44 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC 08 Villingen attack 2.25 + Denzlingen defence 2.44 → ÷2 → 2.34

Denzlingen attack 1.18 + FC 08 Villingen defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

FC 08 Villingen scores more
61%
level
19%
Denzlingen scores more
20%

FC 08 Villingen at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "FC 08 Villingen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg: FC 08 Villingen 5–1 Denzlingen

FC 08 Villingen beat Denzlingen 5-1 in Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg on November 25, 2023.

The match was played at MS Technologie Arena in Villingen-Schwenningen.