Denzlingen 0–1 FC 08 Villingen: Result & Stats

Denzlingen

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

FC 08 Villingen

3/21/2026

Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg · Baden-Württemberg - 24Einbollenstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Denzlingen28%

×Draw23%

FC 08 Villingen49%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DenzlingenExpected goals in this matchFC 08 Villingen

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.34

1.85

Denzlingen

1.34

FC 08 Villingen

1.85

FC 08 Villingen creates 38% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 76 away

1.21

creates per match

1.61

2.09

allows per match

1.47

creates per match

Denzlingen

1.21

FC 08 Villingen

1.61

allows per match

Denzlingen

2.09

FC 08 Villingen

1.47

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Denzlingen+0.00on par

FC 08 Villingen+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Denzlingen ↓

FC 08 Villingen →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–18%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Denzlingen or draw

51%

Denzlingen or FC 08 Villingen

77%

Draw or FC 08 Villingen

72%

Winning margin

Denzlingen wins by 2+

12%

FC 08 Villingen wins by 2+

27%

Team goals

Denzlingen 1+ goals

74%

Denzlingen 2+ goals

39%

Denzlingen 3+ goals

15%

FC 08 Villingen 1+ goals

84%

FC 08 Villingen 2+ goals

55%

FC 08 Villingen 3+ goals

28%

Draw no bet

Denzlingen (draw refunded)

36%

FC 08 Villingen (draw refunded)

64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Denzlingen at home — creates 1.21, concedes 2.09 · 34 matches

FC 08 Villingen away — creates 1.61, concedes 1.47 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Denzlingen attack 1.21 + FC 08 Villingen defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.34

FC 08 Villingen attack 1.61 + Denzlingen defence 2.09 → ÷2 → 1.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Denzlingen scores more

28%

level

23%

FC 08 Villingen scores more

49%

FC 08 Villingen at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "FC 08 Villingen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff