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FBC Melgar vs Comerciantes Unidos — Primera División 2026

FBC Melgar
FBC Melgar
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Comerciantes Unidos
Comerciantes Unidos
9/7/2024Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Clausura - 6Estadio de la Universidad Nacional San Agustín

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 63+ matches

FBC Melgar61%
×Draw22%
Comerciantes Unidos17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FBC Melgar
1.90
Comerciantes Unidos
0.89

FBC Melgar creates 113% more chances

Season form · 148 home / 63 away

creates per match

FBC Melgar
1.82
Comerciantes Unidos
0.89

allows per match

FBC Melgar
0.88
Comerciantes Unidos
1.98

finishing

FBC Melgar+0.00on par
Comerciantes Unidos+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FBC Melgar ↓

Comerciantes Unidos →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–110%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

FBC Melgar or draw
83%
FBC Melgar or Comerciantes Unidos
78%
Draw or Comerciantes Unidos
39%

Winning margin

FBC Melgar wins by 2+
36%
Comerciantes Unidos wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

FBC Melgar 1+ goals
85%
FBC Melgar 2+ goals
56%
FBC Melgar 3+ goals
29%
Comerciantes Unidos 1+ goals
59%
Comerciantes Unidos 2+ goals
22%
Comerciantes Unidos 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

FBC Melgar (draw refunded)
78%
Comerciantes Unidos (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FBC Melgar at home — creates 1.82, concedes 0.88 · 148 matches

Comerciantes Unidos away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.98 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FBC Melgar attack 1.82 + Comerciantes Unidos defence 1.98 → ÷2 → 1.90

Comerciantes Unidos attack 0.89 + FBC Melgar defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

FBC Melgar scores more
61%
level
22%
Comerciantes Unidos scores more
17%

FBC Melgar at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "FBC Melgar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FBC Melgar vs Comerciantes Unidos

FBC Melgar beat Comerciantes Unidos 3-0 in Primera División on September 7, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio de la Universidad Nacional San Agustín in Arequipa.