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Comerciantes Unidos vs FBC Melgar — Primera División 2026

Comerciantes Unidos
Comerciantes Unidos
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
FBC Melgar
FBC Melgar
3/2/2024Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Apertura - 6Estadio Juan Maldonado Gamarra

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Comerciantes Unidos34%
×Draw27%
FBC Melgar39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Comerciantes Unidos
1.19
FBC Melgar
1.31

FBC Melgar creates 10% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 6 away

creates per match

Comerciantes Unidos
1.15
FBC Melgar
1.55

allows per match

Comerciantes Unidos
1.07
FBC Melgar
1.23

finishing

Comerciantes Unidos-0.15scores less
FBC Melgar-0.55scores less

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Comerciantes Unidos ↓

FBC Melgar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Comerciantes Unidos or draw
61%
Comerciantes Unidos or FBC Melgar
73%
Draw or FBC Melgar
66%

Winning margin

Comerciantes Unidos wins by 2+
14%
FBC Melgar wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Comerciantes Unidos 1+ goals
70%
Comerciantes Unidos 2+ goals
33%
Comerciantes Unidos 3+ goals
12%
FBC Melgar 1+ goals
73%
FBC Melgar 2+ goals
38%
FBC Melgar 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Comerciantes Unidos (draw refunded)
46%
FBC Melgar (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Comerciantes Unidos at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.07 · 6 matches

FBC Melgar away — creates 1.55, concedes 1.23 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Comerciantes Unidos attack 1.15 + FBC Melgar defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.19

FBC Melgar attack 1.55 + Comerciantes Unidos defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Comerciantes Unidos scores more
34%
level
27%
FBC Melgar scores more
39%

FBC Melgar at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "FBC Melgar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División: Comerciantes Unidos 0–0 FBC Melgar

Comerciantes Unidos and FBC Melgar drew 0-0 in Primera División on March 2, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Juan Maldonado Gamarra in Cutervo.