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FBC Melgar vs Cesar Vallejo — Primera División 2026

FBC Melgar
FBC Melgar
FT
5 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Cesar Vallejo
Cesar Vallejo
7/20/2024Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Clausura - 2Estadio de la Universidad Nacional San Agustín

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 99+ matches

FBC Melgar53%
×Draw25%
Cesar Vallejo22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FBC Melgar
1.59
Cesar Vallejo
0.94

FBC Melgar creates 69% more chances

Season form · 148 home / 99 away

creates per match

FBC Melgar
1.82
Cesar Vallejo
1.00

allows per match

FBC Melgar
0.88
Cesar Vallejo
1.36

finishing

FBC Melgar+0.00on par
Cesar Vallejo+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FBC Melgar ↓

Cesar Vallejo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

FBC Melgar or draw
78%
FBC Melgar or Cesar Vallejo
75%
Draw or Cesar Vallejo
47%

Winning margin

FBC Melgar wins by 2+
28%
Cesar Vallejo wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

FBC Melgar 1+ goals
80%
FBC Melgar 2+ goals
47%
FBC Melgar 3+ goals
21%
Cesar Vallejo 1+ goals
61%
Cesar Vallejo 2+ goals
24%
Cesar Vallejo 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

FBC Melgar (draw refunded)
70%
Cesar Vallejo (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FBC Melgar at home — creates 1.82, concedes 0.88 · 148 matches

Cesar Vallejo away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.36 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FBC Melgar attack 1.82 + Cesar Vallejo defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.59

Cesar Vallejo attack 1.00 + FBC Melgar defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

FBC Melgar scores more
53%
level
25%
Cesar Vallejo scores more
22%

FBC Melgar at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "FBC Melgar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FBC Melgar vs Cesar Vallejo

FBC Melgar beat Cesar Vallejo 5-2 in Primera División on July 20, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio de la Universidad Nacional San Agustín in Arequipa.