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Cesar Vallejo vs FBC Melgar — Primera División 2026

Cesar Vallejo
Cesar Vallejo
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
FBC Melgar
FBC Melgar
8/12/2023Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Clausura - 8Estadio Mansiche

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 96+ matches

Cesar Vallejo43%
×Draw27%
FBC Melgar31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cesar Vallejo
1.39
FBC Melgar
1.13

Cesar Vallejo creates 23% more chances

Season form · 96 home / 147 away

creates per match

Cesar Vallejo
1.54
FBC Melgar
1.37

allows per match

Cesar Vallejo
0.88
FBC Melgar
1.24

finishing

Cesar Vallejo+0.00on par
FBC Melgar+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cesar Vallejo ↓

FBC Melgar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Cesar Vallejo or draw
69%
Cesar Vallejo or FBC Melgar
73%
Draw or FBC Melgar
57%

Winning margin

Cesar Vallejo wins by 2+
20%
FBC Melgar wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Cesar Vallejo 1+ goals
75%
Cesar Vallejo 2+ goals
40%
Cesar Vallejo 3+ goals
16%
FBC Melgar 1+ goals
68%
FBC Melgar 2+ goals
31%
FBC Melgar 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Cesar Vallejo (draw refunded)
58%
FBC Melgar (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cesar Vallejo at home — creates 1.54, concedes 0.88 · 96 matches

FBC Melgar away — creates 1.37, concedes 1.24 · 147 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cesar Vallejo attack 1.54 + FBC Melgar defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.39

FBC Melgar attack 1.37 + Cesar Vallejo defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Cesar Vallejo scores more
43%
level
27%
FBC Melgar scores more
31%

Cesar Vallejo at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Cesar Vallejo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Cesar Vallejo vs FBC Melgar

FBC Melgar beat Cesar Vallejo 2-1 in Primera División on August 12, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Mansiche in Trujillo.