Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

FBC Melgar vs Atletico Nacional — CONMEBOL Libertadores 2019

FBC Melgar
FBC Melgar
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Atletico Nacional
Atletico Nacional
D. Banguero 88'
5/25/2023CONMEBOL LibertadoresCONMEBOL Libertadores · Group Stage - 4Estadio de la Universidad Nacional San Agustín

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

FBC Melgar52%
×Draw29%
Atletico Nacional20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FBC Melgar
1.33
Atletico Nacional
0.71

FBC Melgar creates 87% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 16 away

creates per match

FBC Melgar
1.09
Atletico Nacional
0.69

allows per match

FBC Melgar
0.73
Atletico Nacional
1.56

finishing

FBC Melgar+0.00on par
Atletico Nacional+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FBC Melgar ↓

Atletico Nacional →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

FBC Melgar or draw
80%
FBC Melgar or Atletico Nacional
71%
Draw or Atletico Nacional
48%

Winning margin

FBC Melgar wins by 2+
25%
Atletico Nacional wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

FBC Melgar 1+ goals
74%
FBC Melgar 2+ goals
38%
FBC Melgar 3+ goals
15%
Atletico Nacional 1+ goals
51%
Atletico Nacional 2+ goals
16%
Atletico Nacional 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

FBC Melgar (draw refunded)
72%
Atletico Nacional (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FBC Melgar at home — creates 1.09, concedes 0.73 · 11 matches

Atletico Nacional away — creates 0.69, concedes 1.56 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FBC Melgar attack 1.09 + Atletico Nacional defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.33

Atletico Nacional attack 0.69 + FBC Melgar defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

FBC Melgar scores more
52%
level
29%
Atletico Nacional scores more
20%

FBC Melgar at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "FBC Melgar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

27
S. GómezAtletico NacionalAtletico Nacional · M
7.9

Match Events

25'
J. E. Solis Romero
39'
S. Cavero
45'
K. Mier
50'
J. E. Solis Romero
50'
J. E. Solis Romero
57'
L. Iberico← P. Magnín
66'
J. D´Arrigo← T. Martínez
67'
C. Devenish← B. Palacios
68'
J. Barrera← D. Pabón
74'
S. Mosquera
78'
A. Arias← C. Bordacahar
78'
K. Cabrera← W. Tandazo
78'
Ó. Perea← Francisco da Costa
88'
D. Banguero↳ Y. Candelo
90+6'
Jhon Duque← Y. Candelo

Possession

58%FBC

Shots

16FBC

Pass accuracy

52%FBC

Statistics

FBCAtletico
Overview
58%Possession42%
16Total Shots12
3Corners5
8Fouls6
Shots
16Total Shots12
4On Target3
11Off Target6
1Blocked3
10Inside Box6
6Outside Box6
Passing
58%Possession42%
507Total Passes382
428Accurate Passes297
84%Pass Accuracy78%
Goalkeeping
2Saves3
Discipline
8Fouls6
1Yellow Cards4
0Red Cards1
2Offsides0

CONMEBOL Libertadores: FBC Melgar 0–1 Atletico Nacional

Atletico Nacional beat FBC Melgar 1-0 in CONMEBOL Libertadores on May 25, 2023.

Goals: D. Banguero (88').

FBC Melgar controlled possession (58%) and registered 16 shots to 12.

The match was played at Estadio de la Universidad Nacional San Agustín in Arequipa.