Atletico Nacional 3–1 FBC Melgar: Result & Stats

Atletico Nacional

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

FBC Melgar

D. Pabón 59', 38' (pen), 28'

L. Iberico 57'

4/21/2023

CONMEBOL Libertadores · Group Stage - 2Estadio Metropolitano Roberto Meléndez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Atletico Nacional62%

×Draw22%

FBC Melgar16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Atletico NacionalExpected goals in this matchFBC Melgar

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.86

0.80

Atletico Nacional

1.86

FBC Melgar

0.80

Atletico Nacional creates 133% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 11 away

1.63

creates per match

0.73

0.88

allows per match

2.09

creates per match

Atletico Nacional

1.63

FBC Melgar

0.73

allows per match

Atletico Nacional

0.88

FBC Melgar

2.09

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Atletico Nacional+0.00on par

FBC Melgar+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atletico Nacional ↓

FBC Melgar →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–16%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Atletico Nacional or draw

84%

Atletico Nacional or FBC Melgar

78%

Draw or FBC Melgar

38%

Winning margin

Atletico Nacional wins by 2+

37%

FBC Melgar wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Atletico Nacional 1+ goals

84%

Atletico Nacional 2+ goals

55%

Atletico Nacional 3+ goals

28%

FBC Melgar 1+ goals

55%

FBC Melgar 2+ goals

19%

FBC Melgar 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Atletico Nacional (draw refunded)

80%

FBC Melgar (draw refunded)

20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atletico Nacional at home — creates 1.63, concedes 0.88 · 16 matches

FBC Melgar away — creates 0.73, concedes 2.09 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atletico Nacional attack 1.63 + FBC Melgar defence 2.09 → ÷2 → 1.86

FBC Melgar attack 0.73 + Atletico Nacional defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Atletico Nacional scores more

62%

level

22%

FBC Melgar scores more

16%

Atletico Nacional at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Atletico Nacional will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

D. Pabón

Atletico Nacional · F

9.2

Match Events

5'

Danovis Banguero

25'

Cristian Bordacahar

28'

D. Pabón↳ Y. Candelo

38'

D. PabónPenalty

46'

A. Salazar← D. Banguero

46'

N. Deossa← Jader

57'

L. Iberico↳ C. Bordacahar

59'

D. Pabón↳ A. Román

64'

Jhon Duque← N. Palacio

64'

Jefferson Duque← T. Ángel

64'

J. D´Arrigo← A. Arias

68'

Horacio Orzan

73'

Y. Mena← D. Pabón

76'

P. Magnín← A. Ramos

76'

J. Archimbaud← P. Reyna

82'

Jean Pierre Archimbaud

85'

K. Cabrera← L. Iberico

90+1'

Alec Deneumostier

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AtleticoFBC

Overview

39%Possession61%

11Total Shots17

6Corners6

8Fouls10

Shots

11Total Shots17

6On Target6

4Off Target6

1Blocked5

5Inside Box8

6Outside Box9

Passing

39%Possession61%

352Total Passes542

270Accurate Passes447

77%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

5Saves3

Discipline

8Fouls10

1Yellow Cards4

1Offsides3

CONMEBOL Libertadores: Atletico Nacional 3–1 FBC Melgar

Atletico Nacional beat FBC Melgar 3-1 in CONMEBOL Libertadores on April 21, 2023.

Goals: D. Pabón (28', 38' pen, 59'), L. Iberico (57').

FBC Melgar controlled possession (61%) and registered 17 shots to 11.

The match was played at Estadio Metropolitano Roberto Meléndez in Barranquilla.

Atletico Nacional vs FBC Melgar — CONMEBOL Libertadores 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CONMEBOL Libertadores: Atletico Nacional 3–1 FBC Melgar