FBC Melgar 1–0 Alianza Universidad: Result & Stats

FBC Melgar

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Alianza Universidad

O. Tejeda 90+3'

9/28/2020

Primera División · Apertura - 14Estadio Universidad San Marcos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

FBC Melgar59%

×Draw23%

Alianza Universidad18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FBC MelgarExpected goals in this matchAlianza Universidad

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.81

0.90

FBC Melgar

1.81

Alianza Universidad

0.90

FBC Melgar creates 101% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 5 away

1.83

creates per match

0.72

1.07

allows per match

1.78

creates per match

FBC Melgar

1.83

Alianza Universidad

0.72

allows per match

FBC Melgar

1.07

Alianza Universidad

1.78

+0.37scores more than expected

finishing

-0.12scores less than expected

finishing

FBC Melgar+0.37scores more

Alianza Universidad-0.12scores less

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FBC Melgar ↓

Alianza Universidad →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–111%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

FBC Melgar or draw

82%

FBC Melgar or Alianza Universidad

77%

Draw or Alianza Universidad

41%

Winning margin

FBC Melgar wins by 2+

34%

Alianza Universidad wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

FBC Melgar 1+ goals

84%

FBC Melgar 2+ goals

54%

FBC Melgar 3+ goals

27%

Alianza Universidad 1+ goals

59%

Alianza Universidad 2+ goals

23%

Alianza Universidad 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

FBC Melgar (draw refunded)

76%

Alianza Universidad (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FBC Melgar at home — creates 1.83, concedes 1.07 · 15 matches

Alianza Universidad away — creates 0.72, concedes 1.78 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FBC Melgar attack 1.83 + Alianza Universidad defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.81

Alianza Universidad attack 0.72 + FBC Melgar defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

FBC Melgar scores more

59%

level

23%

Alianza Universidad scores more

18%

FBC Melgar at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "FBC Melgar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

23

D. Morales

Alianza Universidad · G

8.2

Match Events

25'

26'

48'

48'

49'

49'

57'

58'

A. Moyano← E. Maidana

62'

I. Ávila← H. Hinostroza

72'

M. Rasmussen← C. Neyra

72'

O. Tejeda← J. Vidales

90'

90'

90+1'

90+3'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FBCAlianza

Overview

67%Possession33%

28Total Shots4

17Corners0

15Fouls12

Shots

28Total Shots4

8On Target0

16Off Target3

4Blocked1

24Inside Box1

4Outside Box3

Passing

67%Possession33%

585Total Passes291

512Accurate Passes206

88%Pass Accuracy71%

Goalkeeping

0Saves7

Discipline

15Fouls12

3Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards2

2Offsides1