Alianza Universidad 1–1 FBC Melgar: Result & Stats

Alianza Universidad

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

FBC Melgar

J. Escobar 10'

K. G. Cabrera Nakamura 90' (pen)

5/23/2025

Primera División · Apertura - 14Estadio Heraclio Tapia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Alianza Universidad41%

×Draw26%

FBC Melgar34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Alianza UniversidadExpected goals in this matchFBC Melgar

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

1.27

Alianza Universidad

1.42

FBC Melgar

1.27

Alianza Universidad creates 12% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 19 away

1.20

creates per match

1.46

1.07

allows per match

1.63

creates per match

Alianza Universidad

1.20

FBC Melgar

1.46

allows per match

Alianza Universidad

1.07

FBC Melgar

1.63

-0.20scores less than expected

finishing

-0.09on par

finishing

Alianza Universidad-0.20scores less

FBC Melgar-0.09on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alianza Universidad ↓

FBC Melgar →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Alianza Universidad or draw

66%

Alianza Universidad or FBC Melgar

74%

Draw or FBC Melgar

59%

Winning margin

Alianza Universidad wins by 2+

19%

FBC Melgar wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Alianza Universidad 1+ goals

76%

Alianza Universidad 2+ goals

41%

Alianza Universidad 3+ goals

17%

FBC Melgar 1+ goals

72%

FBC Melgar 2+ goals

36%

FBC Melgar 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Alianza Universidad (draw refunded)

55%

FBC Melgar (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alianza Universidad at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.07 · 5 matches

FBC Melgar away — creates 1.46, concedes 1.63 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alianza Universidad attack 1.20 + FBC Melgar defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.42

FBC Melgar attack 1.46 + Alianza Universidad defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Alianza Universidad scores more

41%

level

26%

FBC Melgar scores more

34%

Alianza Universidad at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Alianza Universidad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

29

J. Escobar

Alianza Universidad · F

7.9

Match Events

-5'

10'

14'

20'

46'

46'

M. Lazo← E. Ramos

46'

L. Guzman← A. Arias

47'

Benjamín Ampuero

49'

Percy Liza

58'

F. Castro← T. Martinez

62'

C. Rodriguez← J. Escobar

64'

E. Oliva← M. Lliuya

72'

P. Vivanco← W. Tandazo

77'

G. Rodriguez← M. Llontop

79'

83'

84'

90+1'

90+11'

90+10'

Percy LizaPenalty confirmed

90+1'

E. O. Vasquez Ortega←

90'

K. G. Cabrera NakamuraPenalty

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AlianzaFBC

Overview

38%Possession62%

10Total Shots18

5Corners8

12Fouls10

Shots

10Total Shots18

2On Target5

6Off Target7

2Blocked6

5Inside Box13

5Outside Box5

Passing

38%Possession62%

258Total Passes415

184Accurate Passes336

71%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

3Saves1

Discipline

12Fouls10

4Yellow Cards5

1Red Cards0

1Offsides7

Match Recap: Alianza Universidad vs FBC Melgar

Alianza Universidad and FBC Melgar drew 1-1 in Primera División on May 23, 2025.

Goals: J. Escobar (10'), K. G. Cabrera Nakamura (90' pen).

FBC Melgar controlled possession (62%) and registered 18 shots to 10.

The match was played at Estadio Heraclio Tapia in Huanuco.

Alianza Universidad vs FBC Melgar — Primera División 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Alianza Universidad vs FBC Melgar