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FBC Melgar vs ADT — Primera División 2026

FBC Melgar
FBC Melgar
FT
4 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
ADT
ADT
4/5/2025Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Apertura - 7Estadio Monumental Virgen de Chapi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 78+ matches

FBC Melgar56%
×Draw24%
ADT20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FBC Melgar
1.72
ADT
0.93

FBC Melgar creates 85% more chances

Season form · 148 home / 78 away

creates per match

FBC Melgar
1.82
ADT
0.97

allows per match

FBC Melgar
0.88
ADT
1.62

finishing

FBC Melgar+0.00on par
ADT+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FBC Melgar ↓

ADT →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

FBC Melgar or draw
80%
FBC Melgar or ADT
76%
Draw or ADT
44%

Winning margin

FBC Melgar wins by 2+
31%
ADT wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

FBC Melgar 1+ goals
82%
FBC Melgar 2+ goals
51%
FBC Melgar 3+ goals
25%
ADT 1+ goals
61%
ADT 2+ goals
24%
ADT 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

FBC Melgar (draw refunded)
73%
ADT (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FBC Melgar at home — creates 1.82, concedes 0.88 · 148 matches

ADT away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.62 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FBC Melgar attack 1.82 + ADT defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.72

ADT attack 0.97 + FBC Melgar defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

FBC Melgar scores more
56%
level
24%
ADT scores more
20%

FBC Melgar at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "FBC Melgar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División: FBC Melgar 4–0 ADT

FBC Melgar beat ADT 4-0 in Primera División on April 5, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Monumental Virgen de Chapi in Arequipa.