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ADT vs FBC Melgar — Primera División 2026

ADT
ADT
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
FBC Melgar
FBC Melgar
8/16/2024Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Clausura - 7Estadio Municipal Unión de Tarma

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 80+ matches

ADT43%
×Draw27%
FBC Melgar31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ADT
1.38
FBC Melgar
1.13

ADT creates 22% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 148 away

creates per match

ADT
1.49
FBC Melgar
1.37

allows per match

ADT
0.88
FBC Melgar
1.26

finishing

ADT+0.00on par
FBC Melgar+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ADT ↓

FBC Melgar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

ADT or draw
69%
ADT or FBC Melgar
73%
Draw or FBC Melgar
57%

Winning margin

ADT wins by 2+
20%
FBC Melgar wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

ADT 1+ goals
75%
ADT 2+ goals
40%
ADT 3+ goals
16%
FBC Melgar 1+ goals
68%
FBC Melgar 2+ goals
31%
FBC Melgar 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

ADT (draw refunded)
58%
FBC Melgar (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ADT at home — creates 1.49, concedes 0.88 · 80 matches

FBC Melgar away — creates 1.37, concedes 1.26 · 148 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ADT attack 1.49 + FBC Melgar defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.38

FBC Melgar attack 1.37 + ADT defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

ADT scores more
43%
level
27%
FBC Melgar scores more
31%

ADT at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "ADT will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División: ADT 1–1 FBC Melgar

ADT and FBC Melgar drew 1-1 in Primera División on August 16, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Unión de Tarma in Tarma.