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FBC Melgar vs Academia Cantolao — Primera División 2026

FBC Melgar
FBC Melgar
FT
3 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Academia Cantolao
Academia Cantolao
8/16/2022Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Clausura - 7Estadio de la Universidad Nacional San Agustín

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 95+ matches

FBC Melgar58%
×Draw23%
Academia Cantolao18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FBC Melgar
1.75
Academia Cantolao
0.86

FBC Melgar creates 103% more chances

Season form · 139 home / 95 away

creates per match

FBC Melgar
1.78
Academia Cantolao
0.89

allows per match

FBC Melgar
0.84
Academia Cantolao
1.72

finishing

FBC Melgar+0.00on par
Academia Cantolao+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FBC Melgar ↓

Academia Cantolao →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

FBC Melgar or draw
82%
FBC Melgar or Academia Cantolao
77%
Draw or Academia Cantolao
42%

Winning margin

FBC Melgar wins by 2+
33%
Academia Cantolao wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

FBC Melgar 1+ goals
83%
FBC Melgar 2+ goals
52%
FBC Melgar 3+ goals
25%
Academia Cantolao 1+ goals
58%
Academia Cantolao 2+ goals
21%
Academia Cantolao 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

FBC Melgar (draw refunded)
76%
Academia Cantolao (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FBC Melgar at home — creates 1.78, concedes 0.84 · 139 matches

Academia Cantolao away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.72 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FBC Melgar attack 1.78 + Academia Cantolao defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.75

Academia Cantolao attack 0.89 + FBC Melgar defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

FBC Melgar scores more
58%
level
23%
Academia Cantolao scores more
18%

FBC Melgar at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "FBC Melgar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División: FBC Melgar 3–1 Academia Cantolao

FBC Melgar beat Academia Cantolao 3-1 in Primera División on August 16, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio de la Universidad Nacional San Agustín in Arequipa.