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Academia Cantolao vs FBC Melgar — Primera División 2026

Academia Cantolao
Academia Cantolao
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
FBC Melgar
FBC Melgar
3/20/2022Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Apertura - 7Estadio Miguel Grau del Callao

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 90+ matches

Academia Cantolao32%
×Draw26%
FBC Melgar41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Academia Cantolao
1.18
FBC Melgar
1.38

FBC Melgar creates 17% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 140 away

creates per match

Academia Cantolao
1.13
FBC Melgar
1.36

allows per match

Academia Cantolao
1.40
FBC Melgar
1.23

finishing

Academia Cantolao+0.00on par
FBC Melgar+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Academia Cantolao ↓

FBC Melgar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Academia Cantolao or draw
59%
Academia Cantolao or FBC Melgar
74%
Draw or FBC Melgar
68%

Winning margin

Academia Cantolao wins by 2+
13%
FBC Melgar wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Academia Cantolao 1+ goals
69%
Academia Cantolao 2+ goals
33%
Academia Cantolao 3+ goals
12%
FBC Melgar 1+ goals
75%
FBC Melgar 2+ goals
40%
FBC Melgar 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Academia Cantolao (draw refunded)
44%
FBC Melgar (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Academia Cantolao at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.40 · 90 matches

FBC Melgar away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.23 · 140 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Academia Cantolao attack 1.13 + FBC Melgar defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.18

FBC Melgar attack 1.36 + Academia Cantolao defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Academia Cantolao scores more
32%
level
26%
FBC Melgar scores more
41%

FBC Melgar at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "FBC Melgar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Academia Cantolao vs FBC Melgar

FBC Melgar beat Academia Cantolao 1-0 in Primera División on March 20, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Miguel Grau del Callao in Callao.