Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Fayzkand vs CSKA Pomir — Vysshaya Liga 2025

Fayzkand
Fayzkand
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
CSKA Pomir
CSKA Pomir
8/3/2023Vysshaya LigaVysshaya Liga · Round 15Stadion Politekhnikum

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Fayzkand38%
×Draw28%
CSKA Pomir34%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fayzkand
1.23
CSKA Pomir
1.13

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 6 home / 37 away

creates per match

Fayzkand
1.50
CSKA Pomir
1.08

allows per match

Fayzkand
1.17
CSKA Pomir
0.97

finishing

Fayzkand+0.00on par
CSKA Pomir+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fayzkand ↓

CSKA Pomir →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Fayzkand or draw
66%
Fayzkand or CSKA Pomir
72%
Draw or CSKA Pomir
62%

Winning margin

Fayzkand wins by 2+
17%
CSKA Pomir wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Fayzkand 1+ goals
71%
Fayzkand 2+ goals
35%
Fayzkand 3+ goals
13%
CSKA Pomir 1+ goals
68%
CSKA Pomir 2+ goals
31%
CSKA Pomir 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Fayzkand (draw refunded)
53%
CSKA Pomir (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fayzkand at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.17 · 6 matches

CSKA Pomir away — creates 1.08, concedes 0.97 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fayzkand attack 1.50 + CSKA Pomir defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.23

CSKA Pomir attack 1.08 + Fayzkand defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Fayzkand scores more
38%
level
28%
CSKA Pomir scores more
34%

Fayzkand at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Fayzkand will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Vysshaya Liga: Fayzkand 2–0 CSKA Pomir

Fayzkand beat CSKA Pomir 2-0 in Vysshaya Liga on August 3, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Politekhnikum in Dushanbe.