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CSKA Pomir vs Fayzkand — Vysshaya Liga 2025

CSKA Pomir
CSKA Pomir
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Fayzkand
Fayzkand
7/4/2022Vysshaya LigaVysshaya Liga · Round 11Stadion Politekhnikum

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

CSKA Pomir35%
×Draw27%
Fayzkand38%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CSKA Pomir
1.25
Fayzkand
1.32

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 39 home / 4 away

creates per match

CSKA Pomir
2.00
Fayzkand
1.50

allows per match

CSKA Pomir
1.15
Fayzkand
0.50

finishing

CSKA Pomir+0.00on par
Fayzkand+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CSKA Pomir ↓

Fayzkand →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

CSKA Pomir or draw
62%
CSKA Pomir or Fayzkand
73%
Draw or Fayzkand
65%

Winning margin

CSKA Pomir wins by 2+
15%
Fayzkand wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

CSKA Pomir 1+ goals
71%
CSKA Pomir 2+ goals
36%
CSKA Pomir 3+ goals
13%
Fayzkand 1+ goals
73%
Fayzkand 2+ goals
38%
Fayzkand 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

CSKA Pomir (draw refunded)
48%
Fayzkand (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CSKA Pomir at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.15 · 39 matches

Fayzkand away — creates 1.50, concedes 0.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CSKA Pomir attack 2.00 + Fayzkand defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 1.25

Fayzkand attack 1.50 + CSKA Pomir defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

CSKA Pomir scores more
35%
level
27%
Fayzkand scores more
38%

Fayzkand at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Fayzkand will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: CSKA Pomir vs Fayzkand

Fayzkand beat CSKA Pomir 2-1 in Vysshaya Liga on July 4, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Politekhnikum in Dushanbe.