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Favoritner AC vs ASV 13 — Landesliga - Wien 2019

Favoritner AC
Favoritner AC
FT
2 – 2
ASV 13
ASV 13
6/3/2023Landesliga - WienLandesliga - Wien · Wien - 27FavAC - Platz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Favoritner AC58%
×Draw19%
ASV 1323%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Favoritner AC
2.58
ASV 13
1.60

Favoritner AC creates 61% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 59 away

creates per match

Favoritner AC
2.19
ASV 13
1.25

allows per match

Favoritner AC
1.95
ASV 13
2.98

finishing

Favoritner AC+0.00on par
ASV 13+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Over
  • Over78
  • Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Favoritner AC ↓

ASV 13 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–16%
1–25%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–15%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
78%22%3.5
59%41%4.5
40%60%

Double chance

Favoritner AC or draw
77%
Favoritner AC or ASV 13
81%
Draw or ASV 13
42%

Winning margin

Favoritner AC wins by 2+
38%
ASV 13 wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Favoritner AC 1+ goals
92%
Favoritner AC 2+ goals
72%
Favoritner AC 3+ goals
47%
ASV 13 1+ goals
80%
ASV 13 2+ goals
47%
ASV 13 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Favoritner AC (draw refunded)
72%
ASV 13 (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
67%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Favoritner AC at home — creates 2.19, concedes 1.95 · 43 matches

ASV 13 away — creates 1.25, concedes 2.98 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Favoritner AC attack 2.19 + ASV 13 defence 2.98 → ÷2 → 2.58

ASV 13 attack 1.25 + Favoritner AC defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Favoritner AC scores more
58%
level
19%
ASV 13 scores more
23%

Favoritner AC at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Favoritner AC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Favoritner AC vs ASV 13

Favoritner AC and ASV 13 drew 2-2 in Landesliga - Wien on June 3, 2023.

The match was played at FavAC - Platz in Wien.