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ASV 13 vs Favoritner AC — Landesliga - Wien 2019

ASV 13
ASV 13
FT
1 – 2
Favoritner AC
Favoritner AC
11/5/2022Landesliga - WienLandesliga - Wien · Wien - 12Sportplatz ASV 13

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

ASV 1335%
×Draw22%
Favoritner AC43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ASV 13
1.66
Favoritner AC
1.85

Favoritner AC creates 11% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 43 away

creates per match

ASV 13
1.48
Favoritner AC
1.49

allows per match

ASV 13
2.21
Favoritner AC
1.84

finishing

ASV 13+0.00on par
Favoritner AC+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ASV 13 ↓

Favoritner AC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

ASV 13 or draw
57%
ASV 13 or Favoritner AC
78%
Draw or Favoritner AC
65%

Winning margin

ASV 13 wins by 2+
17%
Favoritner AC wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

ASV 13 1+ goals
81%
ASV 13 2+ goals
49%
ASV 13 3+ goals
23%
Favoritner AC 1+ goals
84%
Favoritner AC 2+ goals
55%
Favoritner AC 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

ASV 13 (draw refunded)
45%
Favoritner AC (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ASV 13 at home — creates 1.48, concedes 2.21 · 58 matches

Favoritner AC away — creates 1.49, concedes 1.84 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ASV 13 attack 1.48 + Favoritner AC defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 1.66

Favoritner AC attack 1.49 + ASV 13 defence 2.21 → ÷2 → 1.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

ASV 13 scores more
35%
level
22%
Favoritner AC scores more
43%

Favoritner AC at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Favoritner AC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Landesliga - Wien: ASV 13 1–2 Favoritner AC

Favoritner AC beat ASV 13 2-1 in Landesliga - Wien on November 5, 2022.

The match was played at Sportplatz ASV 13 in Wien.