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Fauve Azur Elite vs Dynamo de Douala — Elite One 2019

Fauve Azur Elite
Fauve Azur Elite
FT
4 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Dynamo de Douala
Dynamo de Douala
3/27/2025Elite OneElite One · Round 16Stade Annexe 1 Omnisport

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Fauve Azur Elite40%
×Draw28%
Dynamo de Douala31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fauve Azur Elite
1.23
Dynamo de Douala
1.04

Fauve Azur Elite creates 18% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 38 away

creates per match

Fauve Azur Elite
1.33
Dynamo de Douala
1.34

allows per match

Fauve Azur Elite
0.73
Dynamo de Douala
1.13

finishing

Fauve Azur Elite+0.00on par
Dynamo de Douala+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fauve Azur Elite ↓

Dynamo de Douala →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Fauve Azur Elite or draw
69%
Fauve Azur Elite or Dynamo de Douala
72%
Draw or Dynamo de Douala
60%

Winning margin

Fauve Azur Elite wins by 2+
18%
Dynamo de Douala wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Fauve Azur Elite 1+ goals
71%
Fauve Azur Elite 2+ goals
35%
Fauve Azur Elite 3+ goals
13%
Dynamo de Douala 1+ goals
65%
Dynamo de Douala 2+ goals
28%
Dynamo de Douala 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Fauve Azur Elite (draw refunded)
57%
Dynamo de Douala (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fauve Azur Elite at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.73 · 15 matches

Dynamo de Douala away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.13 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fauve Azur Elite attack 1.33 + Dynamo de Douala defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.23

Dynamo de Douala attack 1.34 + Fauve Azur Elite defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Fauve Azur Elite scores more
40%
level
28%
Dynamo de Douala scores more
31%

Fauve Azur Elite at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Fauve Azur Elite will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Elite One: Fauve Azur Elite 4–0 Dynamo de Douala

Fauve Azur Elite beat Dynamo de Douala 4-0 in Elite One on March 27, 2025.

The match was played at Stade Annexe 1 Omnisport in Yaoundé.