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Dynamo de Douala vs Fauve Azur Elite — Elite One 2019

Dynamo de Douala
Dynamo de Douala
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Fauve Azur Elite
Fauve Azur Elite
12/8/2024Elite OneElite One · Round 1Stade Mbappe Leppe

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Dynamo de Douala46%
×Draw30%
Fauve Azur Elite24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dynamo de Douala
1.20
Fauve Azur Elite
0.77

Dynamo de Douala creates 56% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 15 away

creates per match

Dynamo de Douala
1.33
Fauve Azur Elite
0.60

allows per match

Dynamo de Douala
0.93
Fauve Azur Elite
1.07

finishing

Dynamo de Douala+0.00on par
Fauve Azur Elite+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dynamo de Douala ↓

Fauve Azur Elite →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–111%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Dynamo de Douala or draw
76%
Dynamo de Douala or Fauve Azur Elite
70%
Draw or Fauve Azur Elite
54%

Winning margin

Dynamo de Douala wins by 2+
20%
Fauve Azur Elite wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Dynamo de Douala 1+ goals
70%
Dynamo de Douala 2+ goals
34%
Dynamo de Douala 3+ goals
12%
Fauve Azur Elite 1+ goals
54%
Fauve Azur Elite 2+ goals
18%
Fauve Azur Elite 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Dynamo de Douala (draw refunded)
66%
Fauve Azur Elite (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dynamo de Douala at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.93 · 42 matches

Fauve Azur Elite away — creates 0.60, concedes 1.07 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dynamo de Douala attack 1.33 + Fauve Azur Elite defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.20

Fauve Azur Elite attack 0.60 + Dynamo de Douala defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Dynamo de Douala scores more
46%
level
30%
Fauve Azur Elite scores more
24%

Dynamo de Douala at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Dynamo de Douala will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Elite One: Dynamo de Douala 0–0 Fauve Azur Elite

Dynamo de Douala and Fauve Azur Elite drew 0-0 in Elite One on December 8, 2024.

The match was played at Stade Mbappe Leppe in Douala.