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Fauve Azur Elite vs Cotonsport — Elite One 2019

Fauve Azur Elite
Fauve Azur Elite
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Cotonsport
Cotonsport
12/18/2024Elite OneElite One · Round 3Stade de Ngoa Ekélé

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Fauve Azur Elite39%
×Draw30%
Cotonsport30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fauve Azur Elite
1.10
Cotonsport
0.92

Fauve Azur Elite creates 20% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 102 away

creates per match

Fauve Azur Elite
1.33
Cotonsport
1.11

allows per match

Fauve Azur Elite
0.73
Cotonsport
0.87

finishing

Fauve Azur Elite+0.00on par
Cotonsport+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fauve Azur Elite ↓

Cotonsport →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Fauve Azur Elite or draw
70%
Fauve Azur Elite or Cotonsport
70%
Draw or Cotonsport
61%

Winning margin

Fauve Azur Elite wins by 2+
16%
Cotonsport wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Fauve Azur Elite 1+ goals
67%
Fauve Azur Elite 2+ goals
30%
Fauve Azur Elite 3+ goals
10%
Cotonsport 1+ goals
60%
Cotonsport 2+ goals
23%
Cotonsport 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Fauve Azur Elite (draw refunded)
57%
Cotonsport (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fauve Azur Elite at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.73 · 15 matches

Cotonsport away — creates 1.11, concedes 0.87 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fauve Azur Elite attack 1.33 + Cotonsport defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 1.10

Cotonsport attack 1.11 + Fauve Azur Elite defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Fauve Azur Elite scores more
39%
level
30%
Cotonsport scores more
30%

Fauve Azur Elite at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Fauve Azur Elite will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Elite One: Fauve Azur Elite 0–0 Cotonsport

Fauve Azur Elite and Cotonsport drew 0-0 in Elite One on December 18, 2024.

The match was played at Stade de Ngoa Ekélé in Yaoundé.