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Fatih Karagümrük vs Esenler Erokspor — 1. Lig 2018

Fatih Karagümrük
Fatih Karagümrük
Preview
17:00
Esenler Erokspor
Esenler Erokspor
2/21/20271. Lig1. Lig · Round 27Ataturk Olimpiyat
39%
Fatih Karagümrük
model favours
39%25%36%

Fatih Karagümrük win just 31% against the top half (vs 60% against the bottom)

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
53%
over 2.5 goals
57%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Fatih Karagümrük39%
×Draw25%
Esenler Erokspor36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fatih Karagümrük
1.43
Esenler Erokspor
1.37

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 37 home / 38 away

creates per match

Fatih Karagümrük
1.68
Esenler Erokspor
1.71

allows per match

Fatih Karagümrük
1.03
Esenler Erokspor
1.18

finishing

Fatih Karagümrük+0.00on par
Esenler Erokspor+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fatih Karagümrük ↓

Esenler Erokspor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Fatih Karagümrük or draw
64%
Fatih Karagümrük or Esenler Erokspor
75%
Draw or Esenler Erokspor
61%

Winning margin

Fatih Karagümrük wins by 2+
18%
Esenler Erokspor wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Fatih Karagümrük 1+ goals
76%
Fatih Karagümrük 2+ goals
42%
Fatih Karagümrük 3+ goals
17%
Esenler Erokspor 1+ goals
75%
Esenler Erokspor 2+ goals
40%
Esenler Erokspor 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Fatih Karagümrük (draw refunded)
52%
Esenler Erokspor (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fatih Karagümrük at home — creates 1.68, concedes 1.03 · 37 matches

Esenler Erokspor away — creates 1.71, concedes 1.18 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fatih Karagümrük attack 1.68 + Esenler Erokspor defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.43

Esenler Erokspor attack 1.71 + Fatih Karagümrük defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Fatih Karagümrük scores more
39%
level
25%
Esenler Erokspor scores more
36%

Fatih Karagümrük at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Fatih Karagümrük will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Their last 4 meetings averaged 3.5 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Karagümrük
WWLLD
Erokspor
LDLWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Fatih Karagümrük host Esenler Erokspor

February 21, 2027: Fatih Karagümrük take on Esenler Erokspor in 1. Lig. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Fatih Karagümrük host Esenler Erokspor at Ataturk Olimpiyat.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.