Esenler Erokspor 2–5 Fatih Karagümrük

Esenler Erokspor

FT

2 – 5

HT: 1 – 4

Fatih Karagümrük

12/3/2025

Türkiye Kupası · FinalEsenler Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Esenler Erokspor33%

×Draw23%

Fatih Karagümrük45%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Esenler EroksporExpected goals in this matchFatih Karagümrük

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.79

Esenler Erokspor

1.50

Fatih Karagümrük

1.79

Fatih Karagümrük creates 19% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 12 away

1.50

creates per match

1.92

1.67

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Esenler Erokspor

1.50

Fatih Karagümrük

1.92

allows per match

Esenler Erokspor

1.67

Fatih Karagümrük

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Esenler Erokspor+0.00on par

Fatih Karagümrük+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Esenler Erokspor ↓

Fatih Karagümrük →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–26%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Esenler Erokspor or draw

55%

Esenler Erokspor or Fatih Karagümrük

77%

Draw or Fatih Karagümrük

67%

Winning margin

Esenler Erokspor wins by 2+

15%

Fatih Karagümrük wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Esenler Erokspor 1+ goals

78%

Esenler Erokspor 2+ goals

44%

Esenler Erokspor 3+ goals

19%

Fatih Karagümrük 1+ goals

83%

Fatih Karagümrük 2+ goals

53%

Fatih Karagümrük 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

Esenler Erokspor (draw refunded)

42%

Fatih Karagümrük (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Esenler Erokspor at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.67 · 6 matches

Fatih Karagümrük away — creates 1.92, concedes 1.50 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Esenler Erokspor attack 1.50 + Fatih Karagümrük defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.50

Fatih Karagümrük attack 1.92 + Esenler Erokspor defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Esenler Erokspor scores more

33%

level

23%

Fatih Karagümrük scores more

45%

Fatih Karagümrük at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Fatih Karagümrük will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff