Fatih Karagümrük 1–0 Esenler Erokspor

Fatih Karagümrük

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Esenler Erokspor

Wesley 81'

12/1/2024

1. Lig · Round 14Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Fatih Karagümrük39%

×Draw25%

Esenler Erokspor36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Fatih KaragümrükExpected goals in this matchEsenler Erokspor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.43

1.37

Fatih Karagümrük

1.43

Esenler Erokspor

1.37

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 37 home / 38 away

1.68

creates per match

1.71

1.03

allows per match

1.18

creates per match

Fatih Karagümrük

1.68

Esenler Erokspor

1.71

allows per match

Fatih Karagümrük

1.03

Esenler Erokspor

1.18

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fatih Karagümrük+0.00on par

Esenler Erokspor+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fatih Karagümrük ↓

Esenler Erokspor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Fatih Karagümrük or draw

64%

Fatih Karagümrük or Esenler Erokspor

75%

Draw or Esenler Erokspor

61%

Winning margin

Fatih Karagümrük wins by 2+

18%

Esenler Erokspor wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Fatih Karagümrük 1+ goals

76%

Fatih Karagümrük 2+ goals

42%

Fatih Karagümrük 3+ goals

17%

Esenler Erokspor 1+ goals

75%

Esenler Erokspor 2+ goals

40%

Esenler Erokspor 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Fatih Karagümrük (draw refunded)

52%

Esenler Erokspor (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fatih Karagümrük at home — creates 1.68, concedes 1.03 · 37 matches

Esenler Erokspor away — creates 1.71, concedes 1.18 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fatih Karagümrük attack 1.68 + Esenler Erokspor defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.43

Esenler Erokspor attack 1.71 + Fatih Karagümrük defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Fatih Karagümrük scores more

39%

level

25%

Esenler Erokspor scores more

36%

Fatih Karagümrük at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Fatih Karagümrük will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

14

M. Doh

Fatih Karagümrük · M

7.9

Match Events

33'

Atakan Çankaya

55'

İ. Furat← F. Orak

63'

Berkay DabanlıGoal cancelled

73'

A. Karaman← Óscar Pinchi

73'

A. Hidayetoğlu← J. Fernándes

75'

F. Paoletti← G. Gürpüz

81'

Wesley

89'

A. Toplu← R. Jack

89'

B. Aydoğmuş← M. Albayrak

90+4'

Abuzer Gaffar Toplu

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FatihEsenler

Overview

53%Possession47%

13Total Shots6

3Corners8

9Fouls15

Shots

13Total Shots6

3On Target1

4Off Target2

6Blocked3

9Inside Box4

4Outside Box2

Passing

53%Possession47%

451Total Passes393

368Accurate Passes292

82%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

0Saves1

Discipline

9Fouls15

1Yellow Cards1

6Offsides0