Fatih Karagümrük 1–2 Bandırmaspor: Result & Stats

Fatih Karagümrük

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Bandırmaspor

3/5/2025

1. Lig · Round 28Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Fatih Karagümrük45%

×Draw26%

Bandırmaspor29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Fatih KaragümrükExpected goals in this matchBandırmaspor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.15

Fatih Karagümrük

1.50

Bandırmaspor

1.15

Fatih Karagümrük creates 30% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 110 away

1.68

creates per match

1.27

1.03

allows per match

1.31

creates per match

Fatih Karagümrük

1.68

Bandırmaspor

1.27

allows per match

Fatih Karagümrük

1.03

Bandırmaspor

1.31

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fatih Karagümrük+0.00on par

Bandırmaspor+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fatih Karagümrük ↓

Bandırmaspor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Fatih Karagümrük or draw

71%

Fatih Karagümrük or Bandırmaspor

74%

Draw or Bandırmaspor

55%

Winning margin

Fatih Karagümrük wins by 2+

22%

Bandırmaspor wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Fatih Karagümrük 1+ goals

78%

Fatih Karagümrük 2+ goals

44%

Fatih Karagümrük 3+ goals

19%

Bandırmaspor 1+ goals

68%

Bandırmaspor 2+ goals

32%

Bandırmaspor 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Fatih Karagümrük (draw refunded)

61%

Bandırmaspor (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fatih Karagümrük at home — creates 1.68, concedes 1.03 · 37 matches

Bandırmaspor away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.31 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fatih Karagümrük attack 1.68 + Bandırmaspor defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.50

Bandırmaspor attack 1.27 + Fatih Karagümrük defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Fatih Karagümrük scores more

45%

level

26%

Bandırmaspor scores more

29%

Fatih Karagümrük at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Fatih Karagümrük will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff