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Fatih Karagümrük vs Bandırmaspor — Türkiye Kupası 2018

Fatih Karagümrük
Fatih Karagümrük
FT
4 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Bandırmaspor
Bandırmaspor
10/30/2019Türkiye KupasıTürkiye Kupası · 4th RoundVefa Stadı

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Fatih Karagümrük57%
×Draw19%
Bandırmaspor24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fatih Karagümrük
2.44
Bandırmaspor
1.54

Fatih Karagümrük creates 58% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 7 away

creates per match

Fatih Karagümrük
1.89
Bandırmaspor
1.86

allows per match

Fatih Karagümrük
1.21
Bandırmaspor
3.00

finishing

Fatih Karagümrük+0.00on par
Bandırmaspor+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fatih Karagümrük ↓

Bandırmaspor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–17%
1–25%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
56%44%4.5
36%64%

Double chance

Fatih Karagümrük or draw
76%
Fatih Karagümrük or Bandırmaspor
81%
Draw or Bandırmaspor
43%

Winning margin

Fatih Karagümrük wins by 2+
36%
Bandırmaspor wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Fatih Karagümrük 1+ goals
91%
Fatih Karagümrük 2+ goals
70%
Fatih Karagümrük 3+ goals
43%
Bandırmaspor 1+ goals
79%
Bandırmaspor 2+ goals
45%
Bandırmaspor 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Fatih Karagümrük (draw refunded)
71%
Bandırmaspor (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fatih Karagümrük at home — creates 1.89, concedes 1.21 · 19 matches

Bandırmaspor away — creates 1.86, concedes 3.00 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fatih Karagümrük attack 1.89 + Bandırmaspor defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.44

Bandırmaspor attack 1.86 + Fatih Karagümrük defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Fatih Karagümrük scores more
57%
level
19%
Bandırmaspor scores more
24%

Fatih Karagümrük at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Fatih Karagümrük will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Türkiye Kupası: Fatih Karagümrük 4–1 Bandırmaspor

Fatih Karagümrük beat Bandırmaspor 4-1 in Türkiye Kupası on October 30, 2019.

The match was played at Vefa Stadı in İstanbul.