Fast Clube-Am 1–1 Peñarol: Result & Stats

Fast Clube-Am

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Peñarol

Radames 42'

I. Pedro 45+3'

1/30/2022

League #522 · 1st Phase - 2Estádio Municipal Carlos Zamith

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Fast Clube-Am49%

×Draw29%

Peñarol23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 584,459 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Fast Clube-AmExpected goals in this matchPeñarol

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

0.78

Fast Clube-Am

1.29

Peñarol

0.78

Fast Clube-Am creates 65% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 7 away

1.00

creates per match

0.71

0.86

allows per match

1.57

creates per match

Fast Clube-Am

1.00

Peñarol

0.71

allows per match

Fast Clube-Am

0.86

Peñarol

1.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fast Clube-Am+0.00on par

Peñarol+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fast Clube-Am ↓

Peñarol →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

61%39%2.5

34%66%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Fast Clube-Am or draw

77%

Fast Clube-Am or Peñarol

71%

Draw or Peñarol

51%

Winning margin

Fast Clube-Am wins by 2+

23%

Peñarol wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Fast Clube-Am 1+ goals

72%

Fast Clube-Am 2+ goals

37%

Fast Clube-Am 3+ goals

14%

Peñarol 1+ goals

54%

Peñarol 2+ goals

18%

Peñarol 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Fast Clube-Am (draw refunded)

68%

Peñarol (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fast Clube-Am at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.86 · 7 matches

Peñarol away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.57 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fast Clube-Am attack 1.00 + Peñarol defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.29

Peñarol attack 0.71 + Fast Clube-Am defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Fast Clube-Am scores more

49%

level

29%

Peñarol scores more

23%

Fast Clube-Am at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Fast Clube-Am will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

42'

Radames

45+3'

I. Pedro

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff