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Fast Clube-Am vs Peñarol — League #522 2026

Fast Clube-Am
Fast Clube-Am
CANC
23:30
Peñarol
Peñarol
3/27/2021League #522League #522 · 1st Phase - 6

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Fast Clube-Am49%
×Draw29%
Peñarol23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 584,459 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fast Clube-Am
1.29
Peñarol
0.78

Fast Clube-Am creates 65% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 7 away

creates per match

Fast Clube-Am
1.00
Peñarol
0.71

allows per match

Fast Clube-Am
0.86
Peñarol
1.57

finishing

Fast Clube-Am+0.00on par
Peñarol+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fast Clube-Am ↓

Peñarol →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Fast Clube-Am or draw
77%
Fast Clube-Am or Peñarol
71%
Draw or Peñarol
51%

Winning margin

Fast Clube-Am wins by 2+
23%
Peñarol wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Fast Clube-Am 1+ goals
72%
Fast Clube-Am 2+ goals
37%
Fast Clube-Am 3+ goals
14%
Peñarol 1+ goals
54%
Peñarol 2+ goals
18%
Peñarol 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Fast Clube-Am (draw refunded)
68%
Peñarol (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fast Clube-Am at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.86 · 7 matches

Peñarol away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.57 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fast Clube-Am attack 1.00 + Peñarol defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.29

Peñarol attack 0.71 + Fast Clube-Am defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Fast Clube-Am scores more
49%
level
29%
Peñarol scores more
23%

Fast Clube-Am at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Fast Clube-Am will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Fast Clube-Am face Peñarol (League #522)

League #522 returns with Fast Clube-Am hosting Peñarol. Match starts March 27, 2021. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.