Farul Constanţa W 0–1 Csikszereda MC W

Farul Constanţa W

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Csikszereda MC W

4/4/2026

Liga 1 Feminin · Championship Group - 6

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Farul Constanţa W64%

×Draw19%

Csikszereda MC W17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Farul Constanţa WExpected goals in this matchCsikszereda MC W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.31

1.11

Farul Constanţa W

2.31

Csikszereda MC W

1.11

Farul Constanţa W creates 108% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 49 away

3.31

creates per match

1.63

0.59

allows per match

1.31

creates per match

Farul Constanţa W

3.31

Csikszereda MC W

1.63

allows per match

Farul Constanţa W

0.59

Csikszereda MC W

1.31

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Farul Constanţa W+0.00on par

Csikszereda MC W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Farul Constanţa W ↓

Csikszereda MC W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–18%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–07%

3–18%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Farul Constanţa W or draw

83%

Farul Constanţa W or Csikszereda MC W

81%

Draw or Csikszereda MC W

36%

Winning margin

Farul Constanţa W wins by 2+

41%

Csikszereda MC W wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Farul Constanţa W 1+ goals

90%

Farul Constanţa W 2+ goals

67%

Farul Constanţa W 3+ goals

40%

Csikszereda MC W 1+ goals

67%

Csikszereda MC W 2+ goals

30%

Csikszereda MC W 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Farul Constanţa W (draw refunded)

79%

Csikszereda MC W (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Farul Constanţa W at home — creates 3.31, concedes 0.59 · 39 matches

Csikszereda MC W away — creates 1.63, concedes 1.31 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Farul Constanţa W attack 3.31 + Csikszereda MC W defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 2.31

Csikszereda MC W attack 1.63 + Farul Constanţa W defence 0.59 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Farul Constanţa W scores more

64%

level

19%

Csikszereda MC W scores more

17%

Farul Constanţa W at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Farul Constanţa W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff