Csikszereda MC W 1–1 Farul Constanţa W

Csikszereda MC W

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Farul Constanţa W

3/18/2026

Liga 1 Feminin · Championship Group - 3Stadionul Municipal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Csikszereda MC W37%

×Draw21%

Farul Constanţa W42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Csikszereda MC WExpected goals in this matchFarul Constanţa W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.00

2.13

Csikszereda MC W

2.00

Farul Constanţa W

2.13

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 50 home / 39 away

3.22

creates per match

3.08

1.18

allows per match

0.79

creates per match

Csikszereda MC W

3.22

Farul Constanţa W

3.08

allows per match

Csikszereda MC W

1.18

Farul Constanţa W

0.79

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Csikszereda MC W+0.00on par

Farul Constanţa W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over78
Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes76
No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Csikszereda MC W ↓

Farul Constanţa W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–24%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–03%

1–17%

1–27%

1–35%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–15%

3–25%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (7%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

92%8%2.5

78%22%3.5

59%41%4.5

39%61%

Double chance

Csikszereda MC W or draw

58%

Csikszereda MC W or Farul Constanţa W

79%

Draw or Farul Constanţa W

63%

Winning margin

Csikszereda MC W wins by 2+

20%

Farul Constanţa W wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Csikszereda MC W 1+ goals

86%

Csikszereda MC W 2+ goals

59%

Csikszereda MC W 3+ goals

32%

Farul Constanţa W 1+ goals

88%

Farul Constanţa W 2+ goals

63%

Farul Constanţa W 3+ goals

35%

Draw no bet

Csikszereda MC W (draw refunded)

47%

Farul Constanţa W (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

69%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Csikszereda MC W at home — creates 3.22, concedes 1.18 · 50 matches

Farul Constanţa W away — creates 3.08, concedes 0.79 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Csikszereda MC W attack 3.22 + Farul Constanţa W defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 2.00

Farul Constanţa W attack 3.08 + Csikszereda MC W defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 2.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Csikszereda MC W scores more

37%

level

21%

Farul Constanţa W scores more

42%

Farul Constanţa W at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Farul Constanţa W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff