Farul Constanta 0–1 FCSB: Result & Stats | Liga I

Farul Constanta

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

FCSB

A. Șut 82'

3/31/2024

Liga I · Championship Round - 2Stadionul Central

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Farul Constanta39%

×Draw23%

FCSB38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Farul ConstantaExpected goals in this matchFCSB

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

1.63

Farul Constanta

1.67

FCSB

1.63

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 9 home / 7 away

1.56

creates per match

1.69

1.57

allows per match

1.78

creates per match

Farul Constanta

1.56

FCSB

1.69

allows per match

Farul Constanta

1.57

FCSB

1.78

+0.00on par

finishing

-0.12scores less than expected

finishing

Farul Constanta+0.00on par

FCSB-0.12scores less

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Farul Constanta ↓

FCSB →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Farul Constanta or draw

62%

Farul Constanta or FCSB

77%

Draw or FCSB

61%

Winning margin

Farul Constanta wins by 2+

20%

FCSB wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Farul Constanta 1+ goals

81%

Farul Constanta 2+ goals

50%

Farul Constanta 3+ goals

23%

FCSB 1+ goals

80%

FCSB 2+ goals

48%

FCSB 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Farul Constanta (draw refunded)

51%

FCSB (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Farul Constanta at home — creates 1.56, concedes 1.57 · 9 matches

FCSB away — creates 1.69, concedes 1.78 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Farul Constanta attack 1.56 + FCSB defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.67

FCSB attack 1.69 + Farul Constanta defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Farul Constanta scores more

39%

level

23%

FCSB scores more

38%

Farul Constanta at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Farul Constanta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

A. Șut

FCSB · M

8.3

Match Events

13'

Darius Olaru

29'

Octavian Popescu← E. Radaslavescu

44'

Ionuț Cojocaru

46'

N. Antwi← V. Crețu

52'

N. Grigoryan← R. Deaconu

57'

71'

71'

73'

74'

75'

K. Boli← Gustavo Marins

77'

B. Alhassan← M. Lixandru

77'

D. Miculescu← A. Băluță

79'

Vlad Chiricheş

82'

A. Șut↳ F. Coman

83'

D. Nedelcu← Diogo Queirós

83'

C. Budescu← L. Munteanu

83'

Rivaldinho← I. Cojocaru

85'

Ionuț Larie

90'

Mihai Popescu

90+2'

Florinel Coman

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FarulFCSB

Overview

53%Possession47%

11Total Shots12

2Corners5

17Fouls16

Shots

11Total Shots12

5On Target5

3Off Target5

3Blocked2

7Inside Box9

4Outside Box3

Passing

53%Possession47%

467Total Passes421

364Accurate Passes319

78%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

4Saves6

Discipline

17Fouls16

4Yellow Cards6

0Offsides2